September Fed Hike Odds Drop to 44% After Disappointing July Jobs Report
Question
September Fed Hike Odds Drop to 44% After Disappointing July Jobs Report
Direct answer
Dovish repricing of the front-end curve due to labor market weakness. — bearish pressure on DGS2 via lower short-term yields on dovish shift.
- Original publisher
- Market Ontology
- Evidence through
- 2026-08-13
- Published
- 2026-10-20
- Revision
- 1 · 2026-10-20
Cite as: Market Ontology, “September Fed Hike Odds Drop to 44% After Disappointing July Jobs Report”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-08-13. https://marketontology.com/catalysts/2026-08-13/september-fed-hike-odds-drop-to-44-after-disappointing-july-jobs-report-0a0663
| Asset | Direction | Timeframe | Channel | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DGS2 | ▼Bear | 1–5 days | lower short-term yields on dovish shift | 54 |
September Fed Hike Odds Drop to 44% After Disappointing July Jobs Report
Dovish repricing of the front-end curve due to labor market weakness. — bearish pressure on DGS2 via lower short-term yields on dovish shift.
Probability of hike dropped to 44%.
- SourceProbability of hike dropped to 44%.
- TransmissionDovish repricing of the front-end curve due to labor market weakness.
- SummaryRate hike momentum stalls. Labor market shows first signs of contraction. Warsh pivot becomes a central market focus.
- Crowded positioning may already reflect the move
- Counter-catalyst could neutralize the thesis before window closes
- DGS2 closes above pre-catalyst level on rising volume
- Catalyst narrative is officially walked back or contradicted
- Cross-asset confirmation (rates / FX / vol) reverses direction
- DGS2 price vs. pre-event level
- DGS2 volume vs. 20-day average
What happened next
Price follow-up pending — no stored daily closes for these assets yet.
Closing prices from stored daily bars; returns measured from the last close on or before the event date. Not a recommendation.
Sources
- The Odds of a September Rate Hike Have Plunged · Polygon · 2026-08-12
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