September Fed Hike Odds Drop to 44% After July Jobs Loss
Question
September Fed Hike Odds Drop to 44% After July Jobs Loss
Direct answer
Lower 10Y yields via reduced terminal rate expectations and recession hedging. — bearish pressure on DGS10 via lower yields on dovish Fed pivot.
- Original publisher
- Market Ontology
- Evidence through
- 2026-08-13
- Published
- 2026-10-20
- Revision
- 1 · 2026-10-20
Cite as: Market Ontology, “September Fed Hike Odds Drop to 44% After July Jobs Loss”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-08-13. https://marketontology.com/catalysts/2026-08-13/september-fed-hike-odds-drop-to-44-after-july-jobs-loss-b44921
| Asset | Direction | Timeframe | Channel | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DGS10 | ▼Bear | 1–5 days | lower yields on dovish Fed pivot | 52 |
September Fed Hike Odds Drop to 44% After July Jobs Loss
Lower 10Y yields via reduced terminal rate expectations and recession hedging. — bearish pressure on DGS10 via lower yields on dovish Fed pivot.
CME FedWatch data showing hike odds falling to 44%.
- SourceCME FedWatch data showing hike odds falling to 44%.
- TransmissionLower 10Y yields via reduced terminal rate expectations and recession hedging.
- SummaryRate hike odds for September now below 50%. Unexpected loss of 23,000 jobs in July pressures the Fed. Market shifting from inflation focus to labor market fragility.
- Crowded positioning may already reflect the move
- Counter-catalyst could neutralize the thesis before window closes
- DGS10 closes above pre-catalyst level on rising volume
- Catalyst narrative is officially walked back or contradicted
- Cross-asset confirmation (rates / FX / vol) reverses direction
- DGS10 price vs. pre-event level
- DGS10 volume vs. 20-day average
What happened next
Price follow-up pending — no stored daily closes for these assets yet.
Closing prices from stored daily bars; returns measured from the last close on or before the event date. Not a recommendation.
Sources
- The Odds of a September Rate Hike Have Plunged · Polygon · 2026-08-12
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