September Rate Hike Odds Plunge to 44% After Jobs Miss
Question
September Rate Hike Odds Plunge to 44% After Jobs Miss
Direct answer
Dovish repricing of the front-end curve due to labor market fragility. — bearish pressure on DGS2 via lower short-term yields on dovish Fed repricing.
- Original publisher
- Market Ontology
- Evidence through
- 2026-08-13
- Published
- 2026-10-20
- Revision
- 1 · 2026-10-20
Cite as: Market Ontology, “September Rate Hike Odds Plunge to 44% After Jobs Miss”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-08-13. https://marketontology.com/catalysts/2026-08-13/september-rate-hike-odds-plunge-to-44-after-jobs-miss-edda70
| Asset | Direction | Timeframe | Channel | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DGS2 | ▼Bear | 1–5 days | lower short-term yields on dovish Fed repricing | 54 |
September Rate Hike Odds Plunge to 44% After Jobs Miss
Dovish repricing of the front-end curve due to labor market fragility. — bearish pressure on DGS2 via lower short-term yields on dovish Fed repricing.
Hike odds fell from 67% to 44%
- SourceHike odds fell from 67% to 44%
- TransmissionDovish repricing of the front-end curve due to labor market fragility.
- SummaryThe 'higher for longer' narrative is under direct threat from negative payroll data. Markets are shifting focus from inflation to recession risk. Yield curve steepening likely as front-end rates fall faster than long-end.
- Crowded positioning may already reflect the move
- Counter-catalyst could neutralize the thesis before window closes
- DGS2 closes above pre-catalyst level on rising volume
- Catalyst narrative is officially walked back or contradicted
- Cross-asset confirmation (rates / FX / vol) reverses direction
- DGS2 price vs. pre-event level
- DGS2 volume vs. 20-day average
What happened next
Price follow-up pending — no stored daily closes for these assets yet.
Closing prices from stored daily bars; returns measured from the last close on or before the event date. Not a recommendation.
No verifiable public source recorded for this card.
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