September Rate Hike Odds Plunge to 44% After July Jobs Miss
Question
September Rate Hike Odds Plunge to 44% After July Jobs Miss
Direct answer
Lower front-end yields via dovish repricing of the Fed terminal rate. — bearish pressure on CME via lower exchange volumes on shifting rate expectations.
- Original publisher
- Market Ontology
- Evidence through
- 2026-08-13
- Published
- 2026-10-20
- Revision
- 1 · 2026-10-20
Cite as: Market Ontology, “September Rate Hike Odds Plunge to 44% After July Jobs Miss”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-08-13. https://marketontology.com/catalysts/2026-08-13/september-rate-hike-odds-plunge-to-44-after-july-jobs-miss-e5eb0e
| Asset | Direction | Timeframe | Channel | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CME | ▼Bear | Intraday | lower exchange volumes on shifting rate expectations | 50 |
September Rate Hike Odds Plunge to 44% After July Jobs Miss
Lower front-end yields via dovish repricing of the Fed terminal rate. — bearish pressure on CME via lower exchange volumes on shifting rate expectations.
Source explicitly links CME to rate hike probability shifts.
- SourceSource explicitly links CME to rate hike probability shifts.
- TransmissionLower front-end yields via dovish repricing of the Fed terminal rate.
- SummaryLabor market weakness is now the primary driver of Fed expectations. The 23k job loss is a significant pivot from prior growth assumptions. Market is now pricing a higher probability of a pause or pivot.
- CMEDirect directional or hedged short
Illustrative, not advice
- Crowded positioning may already reflect the move
- Counter-catalyst could neutralize the thesis before window closes
- CME closes above pre-catalyst level on rising volume
- Catalyst narrative is officially walked back or contradicted
- Cross-asset confirmation (rates / FX / vol) reverses direction
- CME price vs. pre-event level
- CME volume vs. 20-day average
What happened next
| Asset | Call | Base close | +1 day | +5 days | +20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CME | Bearishdisagreed | 267.21 2026-08-13 | +0.97% | +1.37% | +3.12% |
Closing prices from stored daily bars; returns measured from the last close on or before the event date. Not a recommendation.
No verifiable public source recorded for this card.
Related catalysts
- 2026-10-17Trump says gasoline prices will drop when the Iran war endsCME WTI XLE-0.64%
- 2026-10-16Fed Hike Odds Reach 35% for Four 25bp Increases by September 2027CME DGS10
- 2026-10-16Fed Hike Odds Reach 35% for Four 25bp Increases by September 2027CME DGS10
- 2026-10-14Tariff and Energy Pressures Lift 2027 Fed Rate Hike PricingCME
- 2026-09-23October Fed Rate Hike Odds Jump to 57.6% on Tariff and Energy Inflation PressuresCME-0.70%
- 2026-09-23October Fed Rate Hike Odds Jump to 57.6% on Tariff and Energy Inflation PressuresCME SPY-0.69%
- 2026-09-23October Fed Rate Hike Odds Jump to 57.6% on Tariff and Energy Inflation PressuresCME SPY-0.69%
- 2026-09-22Fed raises policy rate 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% citing timelier inflation targetCME QQQ-1.38%
See today's live cards
Public pages are published 24 hours after the product shows them. Desk shows every catalyst, event and causal reading as it happens, mapped to your holdings.