Fed analysis: 90-day credit-card delinquencies nearly doubled since 2022; new delinquencies stable since 2024

A Federal Reserve analysis found 90-day delinquent credit card balances have nearly doubled since 2022 to levels not seen since the Great Recession, while new delinquency rates have remained stable since 2024. The report suggests the consumer credit deterioration is skewed to longer-duration delinquencies rather than a broad sudden rise in new delinquencies. Transmission into markets is via lender provisioning and ABS pricing. Names with large unsecured credit exposure should be monitored for reserve builds and funding-cost implications. ABS spreads and bank/consumer credit equities like COF and SYF are directly sensitive to changes in 90-day delinquency stocks. — bearish pressure on COF.

A Federal Reserve analysis found 90-day delinquent credit card balances have nearly doubled since 2022 to levels not seen since the Great Recession, while new delinquency rates have remained stable since 2024. The report suggests the consumer credit deterioration is skewed to longer-duration delinquencies rather than a broad sudden rise in new delinquencies. Transmission into markets is via lender provisioning and ABS pricing. Names with large unsecured credit exposure should be monitored for reserve builds and funding-cost implications. ABS spreads and bank/consumer credit equities like COF and SYF are directly sensitive to changes in 90-day delinquency stocks.

• SummaryA Federal Reserve analysis found 90-day delinquent credit card balances have nearly doubled since 2022 to levels not seen since the Great Recession, while new delinquency rates have remained stable since 2024. The report suggests the consumer credit deterioration is skewed to longer-duration delinquencies rather than a broad sudden rise in new delinquencies. Transmission into markets is via lender provisioning and ABS pricing. Names with large unsecured credit exposure should be monitored for reserve builds and funding-cost implications. ABS spreads and bank/consumer credit equities like COF and SYF are directly sensitive to changes in 90-day delinquency stocks.

• COFDirect directional or hedged short

Illustrative, not advice

• COF price vs. pre-event level
• COF volume vs. 20-day average
• 2Y/10Y Treasury yield direction
• DXY direction
• Fed funds futures repricing

A Federal Reserve analysis found 90-day delinquent credit card balances have nearly doubled since 2022 to levels not seen since the Great Recession, while new delinquency rates have remained stable since 2024. The report suggests the consumer credit deterioration is skewed to longer-duration delinquencies rather than a broad sudden rise in new delinquencies. Transmission into markets is via lender provisioning and ABS pricing. Names with large unsecured credit exposure should be monitored for reserve builds and funding-cost implications. ABS spreads and bank/consumer credit equities like COF and SYF are directly sensitive to changes in 90-day delinquency stocks. — bearish pressure on ABS_UNSEC.

A Federal Reserve analysis found 90-day delinquent credit card balances have nearly doubled since 2022 to levels not seen since the Great Recession, while new delinquency rates have remained stable since 2024. The report suggests the consumer credit deterioration is skewed to longer-duration delinquencies rather than a broad sudden rise in new delinquencies. Transmission into markets is via lender provisioning and ABS pricing. Names with large unsecured credit exposure should be monitored for reserve builds and funding-cost implications. ABS spreads and bank/consumer credit equities like COF and SYF are directly sensitive to changes in 90-day delinquency stocks.

• SummaryA Federal Reserve analysis found 90-day delinquent credit card balances have nearly doubled since 2022 to levels not seen since the Great Recession, while new delinquency rates have remained stable since 2024. The report suggests the consumer credit deterioration is skewed to longer-duration delinquencies rather than a broad sudden rise in new delinquencies. Transmission into markets is via lender provisioning and ABS pricing. Names with large unsecured credit exposure should be monitored for reserve builds and funding-cost implications. ABS spreads and bank/consumer credit equities like COF and SYF are directly sensitive to changes in 90-day delinquency stocks.

• ABS_UNSECDirect directional or hedged short

Illustrative, not advice

• ABS_UNSEC price vs. pre-event level
• ABS_UNSEC volume vs. 20-day average
• 2Y/10Y Treasury yield direction
• DXY direction
• Fed funds futures repricing