Houlihan Lokey flags rising loan distress in sub-$100M EBITDA private credit
Question
Houlihan Lokey flags rising loan distress in sub-$100M EBITDA private credit
Direct answer
Advisory firm Houlihan Lokey published data identifying concentrated stress within smaller private credit issuers. Borrowers generating under $100 million in EBITDA have experienced default rates rising to 3% measured by loan value. Dislocation is steepest among micro-caps with EBITDA between $10 million and $20 million, where 12% of outstanding debt now trades below 90% of par value, compared to just 1% recorded in 2023. — bullish pressure on HLI.
- Original publisher
- Market Ontology
- Evidence through
- 2026-09-12
- Published
- 2026-10-20
- Revision
- 1 · 2026-10-20
Cite as: Market Ontology, “Houlihan Lokey flags rising loan distress in sub-$100M EBITDA private credit”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-09-12. https://marketontology.com/catalysts/2026-09-12/houlihan-lokey-flags-rising-loan-distress-in-sub-100m-ebitda-private-credit-0e3182
| Asset | Direction | Timeframe | Channel | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLI | ▲Bull | 1–3 months | Credit Event | 73 |
Houlihan Lokey flags rising loan distress in sub-$100M EBITDA private credit
Advisory firm Houlihan Lokey published data identifying concentrated stress within smaller private credit issuers. Borrowers generating under $100 million in EBITDA have experienced default rates rising to 3% measured by loan value. Dislocation is steepest among micro-caps with EBITDA between $10 million and $20 million, where 12% of outstanding debt now trades below 90% of par value, compared to just 1% recorded in 2023. — bullish pressure on HLI.
Advisory firm Houlihan Lokey published data identifying concentrated stress within smaller private credit issuers. Borrowers generating under $100 million in EBITDA have experienced default rates rising to 3% measured by loan value. Dislocation is steepest among micro-caps with EBITDA between $10 million and $20 million, where 12% of outstanding debt now trades below 90% of par value, compared to just 1% recorded in 2023.
- SummaryAdvisory firm Houlihan Lokey published data identifying concentrated stress within smaller private credit issuers. Borrowers generating under $100 million in EBITDA have experienced default rates rising to 3% measured by loan value. Dislocation is steepest among micro-caps with EBITDA between $10 million and $20 million, where 12% of outstanding debt now trades below 90% of par value, compared to just 1% recorded in 2023.
- HLIDirect directional exposure
Illustrative, not advice
- Crowded positioning may already reflect the move
- Counter-catalyst could neutralize the thesis before window closes
- HLI closes below pre-catalyst level on rising volume
- Catalyst narrative is officially walked back or contradicted
- Cross-asset confirmation (rates / FX / vol) reverses direction
- HLI price vs. pre-event level
- HLI volume vs. 20-day average
What happened next
Price follow-up pending — no stored daily closes for these assets yet.
Closing prices from stored daily bars; returns measured from the last close on or before the event date. Not a recommendation.
No verifiable public source recorded for this card.
Related catalysts
- 2026-09-12Houlihan Lokey flags rising stress among smaller private-credit borrowersHLI
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- 2026-09-12Houlihan Lokey Highlights Divergent Stress in Small-Cap Private CreditHLI PJT
- 2026-09-12Houlihan Lokey flags widening default stress in smaller private debtHLI HYG-0.09%
- 2026-09-12Houlihan Lokey flags rising credit stress concentrated in small direct lendingHLI
- 2026-09-12Houlihan Lokey flags 3% default rate and rising stress in small private creditHLI
- 2026-09-12Houlihan Lokey Flags Rising Credit Stress Among Small Private BorrowersHLI
- 2026-09-12Houlihan Lokey Highlights Divergent Stress in Small-Cap Private CreditHLI PJT
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