UST2Y catalysts
Catalysts and events linked to UST2Y, newest first.
UST2Y stock catalysts and risks
Latest published review: 2026-10-20
| Development | Transmission channel | Evidence | Condition to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| US jobless claims fall as September layoffs ease 2026-10-01 · Down | fewer claims and lower layoffs reduce urgency for near-term Fed cuts, pressuring short-duration bonds | jobless claims fell last week and planned layoffs dropped 18% in September | Not recorded |
| ADP reports US private payrolls rose by 90,000 in September 2026-09-30 · Up | firmer payroll growth reduces expectations for policy easing | ADP said private employers added 90,000 jobs in September | Not recorded |
| Federal Reserve begins two-day policy meeting as traders price a September rate hike 2026-09-15 · Up | a higher expected policy path pushes short-dated yields higher | markets priced nearly certain Fed tightening before the meeting | Not recorded |
| Fed funds futures price a higher chance of a September rate hike after hawkish Warsh remarks 2026-08-31 · Up | a higher expected policy rate lifts front-end Treasury yields | fed funds futures priced 64% odds of a September hike after Warsh's remarks | Not recorded |
| Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said sticky inflation could still force tighter policy 2026-08-13 · Down | reduced rate-cut expectations raise front-end yields and pressure two-year Treasury prices | Barkin said headline PCE inflation remains elevated at 3.7% and did not signal the September policy path | Not recorded |
| US producer prices were unchanged in July, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve's September rate path 2026-08-13 · Down | reduced odds of a September Fed hike pressure front-end Treasury yields lower | market pricing showed lower implied odds of a September hike and pressured front-end Treasury yields | Not recorded |
| United States publishes July CPI that matches expectations and cools Fed hike bets 2026-08-12 · Down | lower expected Fed tightening reduces front-end Treasury yields | the inflation result reduced market-implied odds of a near-term Federal Reserve hike | Not recorded |
| Treasury yields fall after July CPI eases pressure on the Federal Reserve 2026-08-12 · Down | easier inflation reduces expected Federal Reserve tightening and lowers front-end Treasury yields | front-end Treasury yields moved lower as investors trimmed the odds of additional tightening after July CPI eased | Not recorded |
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DateCardAvg 5d
- 2026-10-01US jobless claims fall as September layoffs easeDXY SPY UST2Y+1.30%
- 2026-10-01US jobless claims fall as September layoffs easeDXY SPY UST2Y+1.30%
- 2026-09-30ADP reports US private payrolls rose by 90,000 in SeptemberDXY SPY UST2Y+1.91%
- 2026-09-30ADP reports US private payrolls rose by 90,000 in SeptemberDXY SPY UST2Y+1.91%
- 2026-09-25Labor Department reports 197,000 U.S. jobless claims in latest weekDXY TLT UST2Y-2.32%
- 2026-09-15Federal Reserve begins two-day policy meeting as traders price a September rate hikeTLT UST2Y+1.29%
- 2026-09-15Federal Reserve begins two-day policy meeting as traders price a September rate hikeDXY TLT UST2Y+1.29%
- 2026-08-31Fed funds futures price a higher chance of a September rate hike after hawkish Warsh remarksDXY QQQ UST2Y+0.22%
- 2026-08-31Fed funds futures price a higher chance of a September rate hike after hawkish Warsh remarksDXY QQQ UST2Y+0.22%
- 2026-08-13US producer prices were unchanged in July, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve's September rate pathNDX SPX UST2Y
- 2026-08-13Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said sticky inflation could still force tighter policyDXY SPX UST2Y
- 2026-08-13US producer prices were unchanged in July, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve's September rate pathNDX SPX UST2Y
- 2026-08-12Treasury yields fall after July CPI eases pressure on the Federal ReserveSPX UST10Y UST2Y
- 2026-08-12United States publishes July CPI that matches expectations and cools Fed hike betsDXY GOLD UST2Y+1.90%
- 2026-08-12United States publishes July CPI that matches expectations and cools Fed hike betsDXY GOLD UST2Y+1.90%
- 2026-08-12Treasury yields fall after July CPI eases pressure on the Federal ReserveSPX UST10Y UST2Y
- 2026-08-03Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Logan speaks on policy outlookDXY SOFR UST2Y
- 2026-08-03Federal Reserve reports increase in reserve balances and slight expansion of balance sheetDXY GLD UST2Y+8.29%
- 2026-08-03US jobless claims edge lower as labor market remains tightDXY NDX SPX UST2Y
- 2026-07-29FOMC minutes flag risk that rates may need to rise further amid AI-driven inflation pressuresDXY NDX UST2Y
- 2026-07-22US House passes short-term funding measure to avert pre-election government shutdownDXY SPX UST2Y
- 2026-07-17Dallas Fed President Logan signals need for 'modestly higher' rates amid inflation pressuresDXY S&P 500 UST2Y
- 2026-07-17Fed maintains policy pause with funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at June meeting, next FOMC set for late JulyDXY FFZ6 UST2Y
- 2026-07-14June U.S. CPI shows outright monthly decline and cooler annual inflationDXY ES_F GC_F NQ_F
- 2026-07-13Global rate expectations tightened ahead of U.S. CPI, keeping pressure on high-beta Central European rates and FXEUR/HUF UST10Y UST2Y
- 2026-07-09FOMC minutes released with a hawkish inflation biasDXY SOFR UST2Y
- 2026-07-09Treasury held a 3-year note auction and scheduled 10-year supply amid rate volatilityTN UST10Y UST2Y ZN
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