ConsumerState: MixedConfidence Medium
Confirmed by
- Retail Sales Ex-Autos (FRED RETAILIRSAAS)
- Consumer Sentiment Index (FRED UMCSENT)
Invalidated by
- Excess Savings (FRED SAVESUBSET)
Causal implications · Consumer · 2026-09-09
Consumption Pivot: Energy Drag and Labor Cooling Offset Disinflation Gains
Sources
- Retail Sales Ex-AutosFRED RETAILIRSAAS
- Consumer Sentiment IndexFRED UMCSENT
- Excess SavingsFRED SAVESUBSET
Earlier readings
- 2026-10-20Consumer resilience tested by $100+ oil and 5% long-end yields.
- 2026-10-19High Energy Prices and Rate Pass-through Straining Discretionary Buffers.
- 2026-10-16Fragile resilience as high rates and oil costs challenge the consumer buffer.
- 2026-10-15Nonlinear Oil Drag vs. Positive Yield Curve: Consumer Resilience at Risk
- 2026-10-14Consumer Squeeze: Non-Linear Oil Sensitivity vs. Resilient Real Yields
- 2026-10-13Consumer resilience tested by $96 Oil and Bear-Steepening Yield Curve.
- 2026-10-05Mixed Consumer Health Facing Energy Headwinds and Tight Rates
- 2026-10-04Energy Drag Offsets Labor Resilience Amid High Nominal Yields
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