ConsumerState: MixedConfidence Medium
Confirmed by
- Retail Sales Ex-Auto Growth Decrease (FRED RETAILIRSAELFE)
- Personal Saving Rate Increase (FRED PSAVERT)
Invalidated by
- Consumer Sentiment Rebound (UMICH INDEX)
Causal implications · Consumer · 2026-09-25
Consumer squeeze via energy costs and term-premium pressure despite stable credit.
Sources
- Retail Sales Ex-Auto Growth DecreaseFRED RETAILIRSAELFE
- Personal Saving Rate IncreaseFRED PSAVERT
Earlier readings
- 2026-10-19High Energy Prices and Rate Pass-through Straining Discretionary Buffers.
- 2026-10-16Fragile resilience as high rates and oil costs challenge the consumer buffer.
- 2026-10-15Nonlinear Oil Drag vs. Positive Yield Curve: Consumer Resilience at Risk
- 2026-10-14Consumer Squeeze: Non-Linear Oil Sensitivity vs. Resilient Real Yields
- 2026-10-13Consumer resilience tested by $96 Oil and Bear-Steepening Yield Curve.
- 2026-10-05Mixed Consumer Health Facing Energy Headwinds and Tight Rates
- 2026-10-04Energy Drag Offsets Labor Resilience Amid High Nominal Yields
- 2026-10-02Elevated Oil and Negative Term Spread Pressuring Discretionary Demand
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