HousingState: BalancedConfidence Medium
Confirmed by
- New One-Family Houses Sold (FRED HSN1F)
- 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (FRED MORTGAGE30US)
Invalidated by
- Housing Starts: Total New Privately Owned (FRED HOUST)
Causal implications · Housing · 2026-09-29
Balanced Housing Regime Faces Headwinds from Term Premium and Rates Pass-through
Sources
- New One-Family Houses SoldFRED HSN1F
- 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage AverageFRED MORTGAGE30US
- Housing Starts: Total New Privately OwnedFRED HOUST
Earlier readings
- 2026-10-20Housing activity constrained by 5% long-rates despite stable labor markets.
- 2026-10-19Balanced housing regime sensitive to 10Y duration volatility and term premium expansion.
- 2026-10-16Balanced Housing Stability Facing Elevated Yield Curve and Tight Spreads.
- 2026-10-15Balanced housing: mortgage spread-sensitive but demand‑resilient
- 2026-10-14High Nominal Rates Anchor Housing Activity Despite Stable Employment Balance
- 2026-10-13Balanced housing activity under pressure from elevated long-term yields.
- 2026-10-05Housing Balanced: Higher Long-End Yields Offset by Resilient Labor Demand
- 2026-10-04Housing activity stabilizes as yield curve steepening offsets credit tightness.
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