Rates Curves · causal implications
One dated reading per day, frozen as published. Each lists the channels at work and the data series that would confirm or invalidate it.
DateCardAvg 5d
- 2026-10-21Curve Flattening Signal: NIM Compression and Growth Deceleration Ahead
- 2026-10-20Growth deceleration signal as T10Y2Y spread stalls at 38bps.
- 2026-10-19Flat curve signals margin compression and late-cycle growth deceleration.
- 2026-10-16Flat curve pressures bank margins and signals late-cycle growth deceleration.
- 2026-10-15Restrictive Neutrality: Yield Curve Flattening Amid Sticky Inflation Stress
- 2026-10-14Yield Curve Flattening Signals Margin Compression and Growth Headwinds
- 2026-10-13Flat Curve Signals Late-Cycle Margin Compression and Growth Deceleration
- 2026-10-05Flat curve signals transition to late-cycle NIM compression and growth deceleration.
- 2026-10-04Bear Steepening Signals Term Premium Recovery and NIM Expansion Amid Inflation Risk.
- 2026-10-02Curve Flattening Signals Margin Compression Amid Tight Policy Impact
- 2026-09-30Restrictive Front-End Yields Anchor Curve Flatness Amid Tight Financial Conditions
- 2026-09-29Bear Steepening Driven by Duration Premia Amid Low Credit Volatility
- 2026-09-28Flat curve regime signals late-cycle compression and NIM pressure.
- 2026-09-27Bull Steepening Signalling Reflationary Transition or Bear Steepening Term Risk Re-pricing
- 2026-09-25Curve Normalization Underway: Term Premium Re-pricing Dominates Flat State.
- 2026-09-21Flat Curve Signals Late-Cycle Margin Compression and Rising Credit Constraints.
- 2026-09-18Flat Curve Signaling Late-Cycle Transition and NIM Compression Risk
- 2026-09-14Front-end pressure sustains flat curve; NIM compression and USD strength dominant.
- 2026-09-13Curve Flatness Signals Growth Deceleration Amid Persistent Short-End Pressure.
- 2026-09-11Curve transition from flat to bear-steepening amid elevated terminal rate expectations.
- 2026-09-09Flat Curve Signals Late-Cycle Margin Compression and Growth Deceleration.
- 2026-09-07Flat Curve Signals Terminal Policy Pressure and Impending Credit Re-Pricing.
- 2026-08-28Bull-Steepening Signals Normalization Amid Persistent Core Inflation Pressure
- 2026-08-22Transition from Flat to Steepening Curve Signals Pro-Cyclical Rebound
- 2026-08-17Curve flattening signals NIM compression and growth deceleration.
- 2026-08-16Flattening curve pressures bank NIMs and signals late-cycle credit tightening.
- 2026-07-02Flat 2s10s (+31bp): front-end tightness, late‑cycle signal, USD firm
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