Does the reason you own Airbnb, Inc. Class A Common Stock still hold?
Review the position using today's evidence. Identify what still supports it, what has changed, and what deserves another decision.
Price as of Nov 3, 2026, 10:45 AM UTC (polygon last daily bar) · Evidence through Oct 30, 2026
The current case for continuing to hold
The stored model values Airbnb, Inc. Class A Common Stock at $141.28 per share against $171.11, versus $82.59 at the previous review on Oct 27, 2026. The case rests on the conditions below.
| Reason to hold | Supporting evidence | Contrary evidence | Condition to review |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (yr 1): 13.38%Supported by the reviewed evidence | Trailing 4-year revenue CAGR of 13.4%, faded toward terminal growth over 5 years. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
| Operating margin (steady-state): 20.14%Supported by the reviewed evidence | Anchored to mean operating margin of 20.1% across the last 4 reported periods. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
| Discount rate (WACC): 10.84%Changed since the previous review | CAPM baseline: 4.94% risk-free + β1.07 × 5.5% ERP = 10.84%. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
What changed since the previous review?
- Nov 3, 2026 · model $141.28 vs price $171.11 · discount rate 10.84% · Overvalued
- Oct 27, 2026 · model $82.59 vs price $171.05 · discount rate 11.00% · Overvalued
- Oct 20, 2026 · model $80.97 vs price $175.46 · discount rate 11.24% · Overvalued
- Oct 30, 2026 · Norwegian Cruise Line jumps on Q3 earnings and efficiency
- Oct 30, 2026 · Hospitality outlook points to travel demand, but labor costs stay high
- Oct 25, 2026 · Booking Generates $9.1B Free Cash Flow and 20.1% Net Margin on Merchant Pivot
- Oct 25, 2026 · Booking Holdings Generates $9.1B FCF and 20.1% Margin in Merchant Model Shift
Review your holding.
The observation that deserves your attention
Discount rate (WACC): changed since the previous review.
Evidence to inspect: 10-yr UST (risk-free) (FRED DGS10); Equity beta (vs SPY, 1y) (Polygon daily bars); Equity risk premium (Damodaran (institutional consensus)).
Make your next review start with what changed.
Save your reasons for holding, the assumptions they depend on, and the conditions you want monitored. When relevant evidence changes, reopen the position with the previous and revised cases side by side.
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