Should you sell Archer Daniels Midland Company or reduce the position?
Calculate what you would remove, what you would retain, and which assumptions support continuing to own it.
Price as of Oct 19, 2026, 2:18 AM UTC (polygon last daily bar) · Evidence through Sep 19, 2026
What has changed in the case for owning it?
Market Ontology's model values Archer Daniels Midland Company at $112.35 per share against $82.61 (+36.0%). 6 dated developments in the last 45 days reach the position.
| Development | Evidence | Assumption affected | Consequence for the case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 · Bunge Increases Viterra Synergy Target to $350M Amid Cash Flow Scrutiny | 1 source | oilseed crush spread pricing parity | Mixed |
| Sep 19, 2026 · Bunge Increases Post-Viterra Cost Synergy Target to $350 Million | 1 source | agribusiness peer processing margin competition | Mixed |
| Sep 19, 2026 · Bunge Lifts Viterra Cost-Synergy Target to $350M Amid Oilseed Strength | 1 source | oilseed crush margin competition and origination pricing | Mixed |
| Sep 19, 2026 · Bunge lifts Viterra cost-synergy target to $350M amid oilseed processing strength | 1 source | relative margin comparison in agribusiness processing | Mixed |
| Sep 19, 2026 · Bunge raises Viterra cost synergy target to 350M USD amid oilseed processing strength | 1 source | crush margin competition in North American oilseed markets | Mixed |
What changes if you sell?
| Keep current position | Sell selected quantity | Exit position | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shares remaining | 100 | 50 | 0 |
| Estimated proceeds after included transaction costs | — | $4,128 | $8,257 |
| Downside case ($70.90) outcome | −$1,171 | −$586 | $0 |
| Upside case ($186.20) outcome | $10,359 | $5,180 | $0 |
| Remaining exposure | $8,261 | $4,131 | $0 |
Included costs: an assumed 5 bps for commission and spread. Tax treatment: not calculated; cost basis is not used in this comparison.
Undecided: sale proceeds and remaining exposure are calculated; replacement performance is left unresolved.
What would justify keeping the remaining position?
- Revenue growth (yr 1) holds near -8.12%: Trailing 4-year revenue CAGR of -8.1%, faded toward terminal growth over 5 years.
- Operating margin (steady-state) holds near 15%: Anchored to mean operating margin of 15.0% across the last 0 reported periods.
- Discount rate (WACC) holds near 6.1%: CAPM baseline: 5.10% risk-free + β-0.05 × 5.5% ERP = 4.80%.
What would justify investigating it again after an exit?
- Implied steady-state FCF margin moves relative to 10.75%: FCF margin the market needs to justify the current price at modeled growth and WACC.
- Net cash position moves relative to -5374USDm: Cash & equivalents minus long-term debt from the latest balance sheet.
- The price falls below the downside value of $70.90.
Preserve the reasoning behind the sale.
Save the reduction you're considering, the evidence behind it, and your conditions for reviewing the remaining position. If you exit, keep the research and specify what would justify revisiting ADM.
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