Should you sell Autodesk Inc or reduce the position?
Calculate what you would remove, what you would retain, and which assumptions support continuing to own it.
Price as of Nov 2, 2026, 6:45 AM UTC (polygon last daily bar) · Evidence through Oct 1, 2026
What has changed in the case for owning it?
Market Ontology's model values Autodesk Inc at $301.10 per share against $249.61 (+20.6%). 5 dated developments in the last 45 days reach the position.
| Development | Evidence | Assumption affected | Consequence for the case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 · Autodesk Outperforms Market as Consensus Projects 15% Topline and EPS Expansion | 1 source | enterprise software subscription growth and margin expansion | Supports the case for owning |
| Oct 1, 2026 · Autodesk gains 2.86% as consensus models 14.9% quarterly revenue growth to $2.13B | 1 source | subscription revenue growth expansion in design software | Supports the case for owning |
| Oct 1, 2026 · Autodesk Climbs 2.86% as Q3 EPS Consensus Projects 14.98% Growth | 1 source | enterprise software subscription growth lifting forward EPS multiples | Supports the case for owning |
| Oct 1, 2026 · Autodesk Gains 2.9% as Consensus Projects 15% EPS Growth to $3.07 | 1 source | software recurring revenue expansion and 15% EPS growth delivery | Supports the case for owning |
| Oct 1, 2026 · Autodesk Gains 2.86% as Consensus Projects 14.9% Q3 Revenue Growth to $2.13B | 1 source | enterprise CAD and AEC subscription cash flow durability | Supports the case for owning |
What changes if you sell?
| Keep current position | Sell selected quantity | Exit position | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shares remaining | 100 | 50 | 0 |
| Estimated proceeds after included transaction costs | — | $12,474 | $24,949 |
| Downside case ($209.66) outcome | −$3,995 | −$1,998 | $0 |
| Upside case ($443.11) outcome | $19,350 | $9,675 | $0 |
| Remaining exposure | $24,961 | $12,481 | $0 |
Included costs: an assumed 5 bps for commission and spread. Tax treatment: not calculated; cost basis is not used in this comparison.
Undecided: sale proceeds and remaining exposure are calculated; replacement performance is left unresolved.
What would justify keeping the remaining position?
- Revenue growth (yr 1) holds near 12.92%: Trailing 4-year revenue CAGR of 12.9%, faded toward terminal growth over 5 years.
- Operating margin (steady-state) holds near 21.07%: Anchored to mean operating margin of 21.1% across the last 4 reported periods.
- Discount rate (WACC) holds near 7.13%: CAPM baseline: 4.98% risk-free + β0.39 × 5.5% ERP = 7.13%.
What would justify investigating it again after an exit?
- Implied revenue growth (next yr → terminal) moves relative to 5.5%: Growth rate that reconciles the current share price to a 5y DCF holding margin, WACC and terminal g fixed.
- Implied steady-state FCF margin moves relative to 26.03%: FCF margin the market needs to justify the current price at modeled growth and WACC.
- The price falls below the downside value of $209.66.
Preserve the reasoning behind the sale.
Save the reduction you're considering, the evidence behind it, and your conditions for reviewing the remaining position. If you exit, keep the research and specify what would justify revisiting ADSK.
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