Does the reason you own Alaska Air Group, Inc. still hold?
Review the position using today's evidence. Identify what still supports it, what has changed, and what deserves another decision.
Price as of Oct 20, 2026, 2:48 PM UTC (polygon last daily bar) · Evidence through Oct 13, 2026
The current case for continuing to hold
The stored model values Alaska Air Group, Inc. at $32.30 per share against $33.98, versus $33.82 at the previous review on Oct 13, 2026. The case rests on the conditions below.
| Reason to hold | Supporting evidence | Contrary evidence | Condition to review |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (yr 1): -3.31%Supported by the reviewed evidence | Trailing 4-year revenue CAGR of -3.3%, faded toward terminal growth over 5 years. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
| Operating margin (steady-state): 3.8%Contradictory evidence requires review | Anchored to mean operating margin of 3.8% across the last 4 reported periods. | US passenger airlines face heavy consensus EPS downgrades ahead of Q3 reporting | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
| Discount rate (WACC): 17.76%Changed since the previous review | CAPM baseline: 5.09% risk-free + β2.30 × 5.5% ERP = 17.76%. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
What changed since the previous review?
- Oct 20, 2026 · model $32.30 vs price $33.98 · discount rate 17.76% · Fair
- Oct 13, 2026 · model $33.82 vs price $38.06 · discount rate 17.47% · Overvalued
- Oct 13, 2026 · Airlines Face Heavy Estimate Cuts as ALK and UAL Flag Profit Margin Compression
- Oct 13, 2026 · Airlines Face Downward EPS Revisions Ahead of Q3 Results as ALK and UAL Drop
- Oct 13, 2026 · Airlines Face Heavy Q3 Estimate Cuts as ALK Revisions Drop 86.8% and UAL Falls 19.9%
- Oct 13, 2026 · Airlines ALK and UAL Drop as Analysts Slash Q3 Earnings Projections
Review your holding.
The observation that deserves your attention
Operating margin (steady-state): contradictory evidence requires review.
Evidence to inspect: 10-yr UST (risk-free) (FRED DGS10); Equity beta (vs SPY, 1y) (Polygon daily bars); Equity risk premium (Damodaran (institutional consensus)).
Make your next review start with what changed.
Save your reasons for holding, the assumptions they depend on, and the conditions you want monitored. When relevant evidence changes, reopen the position with the previous and revised cases side by side.
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