Should you sell Allegion Public Limited Company or reduce the position?
Calculate what you would remove, what you would retain, and which assumptions support continuing to own it.
Price as of Oct 30, 2026, 11:03 AM UTC (polygon last daily bar) · Evidence through Oct 23, 2026
What has changed in the case for owning it?
Market Ontology's model values Allegion Public Limited Company at $151.08 per share against $187.06 (-19.2%). 4 dated developments in the last 45 days reach the position.
| Development | Evidence | Assumption affected | Consequence for the case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 · Allegion raises 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $9.05-$9.10 on institutional pricing | 1 source | institutional dynamic pricing power expanding earnings multiple | Supports the case for owning |
| Oct 23, 2026 · Allegion Raises FY2026 Revenue and EPS Outlook on Non-Residential Lock Demand | 1 source | upward guidance revisions via non-residential contract pricing | Supports the case for owning |
| Oct 23, 2026 · Allegion Lifts 2026 EPS Guidance to $9.10 on Non-Residential Specification Demand | 1 source | commercial security system operating leverage | Supports the case for owning |
| Oct 23, 2026 · Allegion raises 2026 revenue and adjusted EPS guidance on pricing strength | 1 source | forward EPS consensus upgrade | Supports the case for owning |
What changes if you sell?
| Keep current position | Sell selected quantity | Exit position | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shares remaining | 100 | 50 | 0 |
| Estimated proceeds after included transaction costs | — | $9,348 | $18,697 |
| Downside case ($100.56) outcome | −$8,650 | −$4,325 | $0 |
| Upside case ($228.09) outcome | $4,103 | $2,052 | $0 |
| Remaining exposure | $18,706 | $9,353 | $0 |
Included costs: an assumed 5 bps for commission and spread. Tax treatment: not calculated; cost basis is not used in this comparison.
Undecided: sale proceeds and remaining exposure are calculated; replacement performance is left unresolved.
What would justify keeping the remaining position?
- Revenue growth (yr 1) holds near 7.52%: Trailing 4-year revenue CAGR of 7.5%, faded toward terminal growth over 5 years.
- Operating margin (steady-state) holds near 19.79%: Anchored to mean operating margin of 19.8% across the last 4 reported periods.
- Discount rate (WACC) holds near 7.35%: CAPM baseline: 5.05% risk-free + β0.42 × 5.5% ERP = 7.35%.
What would justify investigating it again after an exit?
- Implied revenue growth (next yr → terminal) moves relative to 17.27%: Growth rate that reconciles the current share price to a 5y DCF holding margin, WACC and terminal g fixed.
- Implied steady-state FCF margin moves relative to 18.11%: FCF margin the market needs to justify the current price at modeled growth and WACC.
- The price falls below the downside value of $100.56.
Preserve the reasoning behind the sale.
Save the reduction you're considering, the evidence behind it, and your conditions for reviewing the remaining position. If you exit, keep the research and specify what would justify revisiting ALLE.
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