Should you sell Commercial Metals Company or reduce the position?
Calculate what you would remove, what you would retain, and which assumptions support continuing to own it.
Price as of Nov 3, 2026, 1:45 PM UTC (mo prices close) · Evidence through Oct 16, 2026
What has changed in the case for owning it?
Market Ontology's model values Commercial Metals Company at $46.58 per share against $65.86 (-29.3%). No dated development in the last 45 days reaches the position.
What changes if you sell?
| Keep current position | Sell selected quantity | Exit position | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shares remaining | 100 | 50 | 0 |
| Estimated proceeds after included transaction costs | — | $3,291 | $6,583 |
| Downside case ($29.75) outcome | −$3,611 | −$1,806 | $0 |
| Upside case ($68.24) outcome | $238 | $119 | $0 |
| Remaining exposure | $6,586 | $3,293 | $0 |
Included costs: an assumed 5 bps for commission and spread. Tax treatment: not calculated; cost basis is not used in this comparison.
Undecided: sale proceeds and remaining exposure are calculated; replacement performance is left unresolved.
What would justify keeping the remaining position?
- Revenue growth (yr 1) holds near 2.2%: Trailing 4-year revenue CAGR of 2.2%, faded toward terminal growth over 5 years.
- Operating margin (steady-state) holds near 15%: Anchored to mean operating margin of 15.0% across the last 0 reported periods.
- Discount rate (WACC) holds near 10.44%: CAPM baseline: 4.94% risk-free + β1.00 × 5.5% ERP = 10.44%.
What would justify investigating it again after an exit?
- Implied revenue growth (yr 1, faded to terminal) moves relative to 13.51%: First-year growth that, on the same model, reconciles the current price holding operating margin, 52% cash conversion, WACC and terminal g fixed.
- Implied steady-state operating margin moves relative to 19.21%: Operating margin the current price requires on the same model at modeled growth, tax, cash conversion and WACC.
- The price falls below the downside value of $29.75.
Preserve the reasoning behind the sale.
Save the reduction you're considering, the evidence behind it, and your conditions for reviewing the remaining position. If you exit, keep the research and specify what would justify revisiting CMC.
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