Does the reason you own HF Sinclair Corporation still hold?
Review the position using today's evidence. Identify what still supports it, what has changed, and what deserves another decision.
Price as of Oct 16, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC (polygon last daily bar) · Evidence through Oct 30, 2025
The current case for continuing to hold
The stored model values HF Sinclair Corporation at $82.09 per share against $124.70. The case rests on the conditions below.
| Reason to hold | Supporting evidence | Contrary evidence | Condition to review |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (yr 1): -10.62%Supported by the reviewed evidence | Trailing 4-year revenue CAGR of -10.6%, faded toward terminal growth over 5 years. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
| Operating margin (steady-state): 2.77%Supported by the reviewed evidence | Anchored to mean operating margin of 2.8% across the last 4 reported periods. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
| Discount rate (WACC): 6.1%Supported by the reviewed evidence | CAPM baseline: 5.10% risk-free + β-0.27 × 5.5% ERP = 3.62%. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
What changed since the previous review?
- Oct 16, 2026 · model $82.09 vs price $124.70 · discount rate 6.10% · Overvalued
Review your holding.
The observation that deserves your attention
Discount rate moves the value most: 6.10% → 7.10% gives $62.59.
Evidence to inspect: 10-yr UST (risk-free) (FRED DGS10); Equity beta (vs SPY, 1y) (Polygon daily bars); Equity risk premium (Damodaran (institutional consensus)).
Make your next review start with what changed.
Save your reasons for holding, the assumptions they depend on, and the conditions you want monitored. When relevant evidence changes, reopen the position with the previous and revised cases side by side.
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