Should you sell FTI Consulting, Inc. or reduce the position?
Calculate what you would remove, what you would retain, and which assumptions support continuing to own it.
Price as of Nov 5, 2026, 10:45 AM UTC (polygon last daily bar) · Evidence through Oct 1, 2026
What has changed in the case for owning it?
Market Ontology's model values FTI Consulting, Inc. at $253.40 per share against $198.32 (+27.8%). 8 dated developments in the last 45 days reach the position.
| Development | Evidence | Assumption affected | Consequence for the case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 · FTI Consulting Adds Four UK Restructuring Managing Directors to Corporate Finance Unit | 1 source | restructuring advisory fee revenue expansion from elevated corporate defaults | Supports the case for owning |
| Oct 1, 2026 · FTI Consulting Adds Four Managing Directors to UK Restructuring Practice | 1 source | consulting fee growth from insolvency and corporate turnaround advisory demand | Supports the case for owning |
| Oct 1, 2026 · FTI Consulting Expands UK Restructuring Team with Four Senior Managing Directors | 1 source | consulting advisory fee growth from rising insolvency case volume | Supports the case for owning |
| Oct 1, 2026 · FTI Consulting Expands UK Restructuring and Insolvency Practice with Four Senior Hires | 1 source | restructuring advisory fee revenue expansion from expanded UK headcount | Supports the case for owning |
| Oct 1, 2026 · FTI Consulting Expands UK Restructuring Unit with Four Managing Director Appointments | 1 source | restructuring and corporate finance advisory fee revenue growth | Supports the case for owning |
What changes if you sell?
| Keep current position | Sell selected quantity | Exit position | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shares remaining | 100 | 50 | 0 |
| Estimated proceeds after included transaction costs | — | $9,911 | $19,822 |
| Downside case ($165.68) outcome | −$3,264 | −$1,632 | $0 |
| Upside case ($412.36) outcome | $21,404 | $10,702 | $0 |
| Remaining exposure | $19,832 | $9,916 | $0 |
Included costs: an assumed 5 bps for commission and spread. Tax treatment: not calculated; cost basis is not used in this comparison.
Undecided: sale proceeds and remaining exposure are calculated; replacement performance is left unresolved.
What would justify keeping the remaining position?
- Revenue growth (yr 1) holds near 7.75%: Trailing 4-year revenue CAGR of 7.7%, faded toward terminal growth over 5 years.
- Operating margin (steady-state) holds near 10.13%: Anchored to mean operating margin of 10.1% across the last 4 reported periods.
- Discount rate (WACC) holds near 5.95%: CAPM baseline: 4.95% risk-free + β-0.38 × 5.5% ERP = 2.86%.
What would justify investigating it again after an exit?
- Implied revenue growth (yr 1, faded to terminal) moves relative to -2.49%: First-year growth that, on the same model, reconciles the current price holding operating margin, 68% cash conversion, WACC and terminal g fixed.
- Implied steady-state operating margin moves relative to 7.96%: Operating margin the current price requires on the same model at modeled growth, tax, cash conversion and WACC.
- The price falls below the downside value of $165.68.
Preserve the reasoning behind the sale.
Save the reduction you're considering, the evidence behind it, and your conditions for reviewing the remaining position. If you exit, keep the research and specify what would justify revisiting FCN.
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