Should you sell Lockheed Martin Corp. or reduce the position?
Calculate what you would remove, what you would retain, and which assumptions support continuing to own it.
Price as of Oct 18, 2026, 5:16 AM UTC (polygon last daily bar) · Evidence through Oct 18, 2026
What has changed in the case for owning it?
Market Ontology's model values Lockheed Martin Corp. at $375.07 per share against $552.09 (-32.1%). 8 dated developments in the last 45 days reach the position.
| Development | Evidence | Assumption affected | Consequence for the case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 · Lockheed Martin's $230B backlog keeps defense cash flow visible | 1 source | backlog visibility supports revenue and margin durability | Supports the case for owning |
| Oct 18, 2026 · Lockheed Martin backlog reaches $230 billion on missiles demand | 1 source | higher backlog supports revenue visibility and earnings multiple defense through missile-system orders | Supports the case for owning |
| Oct 18, 2026 · Lockheed Martin Backlog Reaches $230 Billion on Global Interceptor Orders | 1 source | defense backlog conversion providing multi-year cash flow visibility | Supports the case for owning |
| Oct 16, 2026 · GE Aerospace Expands Commercial Backlog Past $210B with 18.5% Revenue Growth | 1 source | defense budget procurement vs commercial aerospace capital rotation | Mixed |
| Oct 14, 2026 · Cyber Warfare Defense Market Forecasted to Reach $28.75B by 2031 | 1 source | military cybersecurity integration into defense platforms | Supports the case for owning |
What changes if you sell?
| Keep current position | Sell selected quantity | Exit position | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shares remaining | 100 | 50 | 0 |
| Estimated proceeds after included transaction costs | — | $27,591 | $55,181 |
| Downside case ($224.41) outcome | −$32,768 | −$16,384 | $0 |
| Upside case ($643.51) outcome | $9,142 | $4,571 | $0 |
| Remaining exposure | $55,209 | $27,605 | $0 |
Included costs: an assumed 5 bps for commission and spread. Tax treatment: not calculated; cost basis is not used in this comparison.
Undecided: sale proceeds and remaining exposure are calculated; replacement performance is left unresolved.
What would justify keeping the remaining position?
- Revenue growth (yr 1) holds near -8.33%: Trailing 4-year revenue CAGR of -8.3%, faded toward terminal growth over 5 years.
- Operating margin (steady-state) holds near 10.52%: Anchored to mean operating margin of 10.5% across the last 4 reported periods.
- Discount rate (WACC) holds near 6.1%: CAPM baseline: 5.10% risk-free + β-0.02 × 5.5% ERP = 4.98%.
What would justify investigating it again after an exit?
- Implied revenue growth (next yr → terminal) moves relative to 6.33%: Growth rate that reconciles the current share price to a 5y DCF holding margin, WACC and terminal g fixed.
- Implied steady-state FCF margin moves relative to 11.93%: FCF margin the market needs to justify the current price at modeled growth and WACC.
- The price falls below the downside value of $224.41.
Preserve the reasoning behind the sale.
Save the reduction you're considering, the evidence behind it, and your conditions for reviewing the remaining position. If you exit, keep the research and specify what would justify revisiting LMT.
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