Does the reason you own Merck & Co., Inc. still hold?
Review the position using today's evidence. Identify what still supports it, what has changed, and what deserves another decision.
Price as of Oct 17, 2026, 10:01 PM UTC (polygon last daily bar) · Evidence through Oct 21, 2026
The current case for continuing to hold
The stored model values Merck & Co., Inc. at $102.23 per share against $145.95, versus $100.31 at the previous review on Oct 10, 2026. The case rests on the conditions below.
| Reason to hold | Supporting evidence | Contrary evidence | Condition to review |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (yr 1): -8.84%Supported by the reviewed evidence | Trailing 4-year revenue CAGR of -8.8%, faded toward terminal growth over 5 years. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
| Operating margin (steady-state): 15%Contradictory evidence requires review | Anchored to mean operating margin of 15.0% across the last 0 reported periods. | Merck declines 2.66% ahead of October 29 Q3 earnings as consensus models 12.8% EPS drop | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
| Discount rate (WACC): 6.1%Changed since the previous review | CAPM baseline: 5.10% risk-free + β0.13 × 5.5% ERP = 5.83%. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
What changed since the previous review?
- Oct 17, 2026 · model $102.23 vs price $145.95 · discount rate 6.10% · Overvalued
- Oct 10, 2026 · model $100.31 vs price $145.60 · discount rate 6.22% · Overvalued
- Oct 3, 2026 · model $100.00 vs price $144.30 · discount rate 6.24% · Overvalued
- Oct 21, 2026 · Moderna reported positive phase 3 cancer vaccine results
- Oct 1, 2026 · Merck declines 2.66% ahead of October 29 Q3 earnings as consensus models 12.8% EPS drop
- Oct 1, 2026 · Merck Faces 12.8% EPS Contraction Forecast Ahead of October 29 Print
- Oct 1, 2026 · Merck Sets Q3 2026 Earnings Release for October 29 Amid Pipeline Scrutiny
Review your holding.
The observation that deserves your attention
Operating margin (steady-state): contradictory evidence requires review.
Evidence to inspect: 10-yr UST (risk-free) (FRED DGS10); Equity beta (vs SPY, 1y) (Polygon daily bars); Equity risk premium (Damodaran (institutional consensus)).
Make your next review start with what changed.
Save your reasons for holding, the assumptions they depend on, and the conditions you want monitored. When relevant evidence changes, reopen the position with the previous and revised cases side by side.
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