Does the reason you own NetFlix Inc still hold?
Review the position using today's evidence. Identify what still supports it, what has changed, and what deserves another decision.
Price as of Oct 25, 2026, 2:45 AM UTC (polygon last daily bar) · Evidence through Oct 22, 2026
The current case for continuing to hold
The stored model values NetFlix Inc at $49.80 per share against $65.85, versus $30.70 at the previous review on Oct 18, 2026. The case rests on the conditions below.
| Reason to hold | Supporting evidence | Contrary evidence | Condition to review |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (yr 1): -1.14%Contradictory evidence requires review | Trailing 4-year revenue CAGR of -1.1%, faded toward terminal growth over 5 years. | Netflix cuts ad revenue forecast by $300 million | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
| Operating margin (steady-state): 30.24%Supported by the reviewed evidence | Anchored to mean operating margin of 30.2% across the last 4 reported periods. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
| Discount rate (WACC): 6.19%Changed since the previous review | CAPM baseline: 4.96% risk-free + β0.22 × 5.5% ERP = 6.19%. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
What changed since the previous review?
- Oct 25, 2026 · model $49.80 vs price $65.85 · discount rate 6.19% · Overvalued
- Oct 18, 2026 · model $30.70 vs price $70.53 · discount rate 6.92% · Overvalued
- Oct 11, 2026 · model $31.35 vs price $70.30 · discount rate 6.89% · Overvalued
- Oct 22, 2026 · Netflix year-to-date decline frames valuation debate
- Oct 22, 2026 · Netflix Q3 operating margin widens to 34.6% on $12.9B in revenue
- Oct 21, 2026 · Netflix cuts ad revenue forecast by $300 million
- Oct 21, 2026 · Netflix cuts ad revenue forecast by $300 million
Review your holding.
The observation that deserves your attention
Revenue growth (yr 1): contradictory evidence requires review.
Evidence to inspect: 10-yr UST (risk-free) (FRED DGS10); Equity beta (vs SPY, 1y) (Polygon daily bars); Equity risk premium (Damodaran (institutional consensus)).
Make your next review start with what changed.
Save your reasons for holding, the assumptions they depend on, and the conditions you want monitored. When relevant evidence changes, reopen the position with the previous and revised cases side by side.
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