Should you sell O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. or reduce the position?
Calculate what you would remove, what you would retain, and which assumptions support continuing to own it.
Price as of Oct 30, 2026, 9:45 AM UTC (polygon last daily bar) · Evidence through Oct 30, 2026
What has changed in the case for owning it?
Market Ontology's model values O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. at $87.68 per share against $88.07 (-0.4%). 3 dated developments in the last 45 days reach the position.
| Development | Evidence | Assumption affected | Consequence for the case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 · O'Reilly raises sales guide as tariff refunds support results | 1 sources | higher comp sales and tariff refunds support retail auto-margin resilience | Supports the case for owning |
| Oct 30, 2026 · O'Reilly lifts full-year comp guidance to 5.5%-6.5% on commercial demand | 1 sources | commercial customer market share expansion and tariff cash recovery | Supports the case for owning |
| Oct 30, 2026 · O'Reilly raises comps guide with tariff refund tailwind | 1 sources | higher comps and tariff refunds support margins and sales growth | Supports the case for owning |
What changes if you sell?
| Keep current position | Sell selected quantity | Exit position | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shares remaining | 100 | 50 | 0 |
| Estimated proceeds after included transaction costs | — | $4,401 | $8,803 |
| Downside case ($55.54) outcome | −$3,253 | −$1,627 | $0 |
| Upside case ($145.30) outcome | $5,723 | $2,862 | $0 |
| Remaining exposure | $8,807 | $4,404 | $0 |
Included costs: an assumed 5 bps for commission and spread. Tax treatment: not calculated; cost basis is not used in this comparison.
Undecided: sale proceeds and remaining exposure are calculated; replacement performance is left unresolved.
What would justify keeping the remaining position?
- Revenue growth (yr 1) holds near 7.26%: Trailing 4-year revenue CAGR of 7.3%, faded toward terminal growth over 5 years.
- Operating margin (steady-state) holds near 19.89%: Anchored to mean operating margin of 19.9% across the last 4 reported periods.
- Discount rate (WACC) holds near 6.05%: CAPM baseline: 5.05% risk-free + β0.07 × 5.5% ERP = 5.42%.
What would justify investigating it again after an exit?
- Implied revenue growth (next yr → terminal) moves relative to 8.4%: Growth rate that reconciles the current share price to a 5y DCF holding margin, WACC and terminal g fixed.
- Implied steady-state FCF margin moves relative to 13.3%: FCF margin the market needs to justify the current price at modeled growth and WACC.
- The price falls below the downside value of $55.54.
Preserve the reasoning behind the sale.
Save the reduction you're considering, the evidence behind it, and your conditions for reviewing the remaining position. If you exit, keep the research and specify what would justify revisiting ORLY.
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