Does the reason you own Occidental Petroleum Corporation still hold?
Review the position using today's evidence. Identify what still supports it, what has changed, and what deserves another decision.
Price as of Oct 19, 2026, 2:45 AM UTC (polygon last daily bar) · Evidence through Sep 12, 2026
The current case for continuing to hold
The stored model values Occidental Petroleum Corporation at $64.64 per share against $62.38, versus $63.19 at the previous review on Oct 12, 2026. The case rests on the conditions below.
| Reason to hold | Supporting evidence | Contrary evidence | Condition to review |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (yr 1): -4.29%Supported by the reviewed evidence | Trailing 4-year revenue CAGR of -4.3%, faded toward terminal growth over 5 years. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
| Operating margin (steady-state): 15%Supported by the reviewed evidence | Anchored to mean operating margin of 15.0% across the last 0 reported periods. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
| Discount rate (WACC): 6.1%Changed since the previous review | CAPM baseline: 5.10% risk-free + β-0.76 × 5.5% ERP = 0.90%. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
What changed since the previous review?
- Oct 19, 2026 · model $64.64 vs price $62.38 · discount rate 6.10% · Fair
- Oct 12, 2026 · model $63.19 vs price $60.11 · discount rate 6.22% · Fair
- Oct 5, 2026 · model $62.95 vs price $58.08 · discount rate 6.24% · Undervalued
- Sep 12, 2026 · Occidental targets $10B debt load to unlock $740M in annual interest savings
- Sep 12, 2026 · Occidental targets $10B debt level to free $740M in annual interest expense
- Sep 12, 2026 · Occidental targets debt cut to $10B to unlock $740M in annual interest savings
- Sep 12, 2026 · Occidental Targets $10B Debt Load to Reduce Annual Interest Expenses by $740M
Review your holding.
The observation that deserves your attention
Discount rate (WACC): changed since the previous review.
Evidence to inspect: 10-yr UST (risk-free) (FRED DGS10); Equity beta (vs SPY, 1y) (Polygon daily bars); Equity risk premium (Damodaran (institutional consensus)).
Make your next review start with what changed.
Save your reasons for holding, the assumptions they depend on, and the conditions you want monitored. When relevant evidence changes, reopen the position with the previous and revised cases side by side.
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