Should you sell Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock or reduce the position?
Calculate what you would remove, what you would retain, and which assumptions support continuing to own it.
Price as of Nov 11, 2026, 10:33 AM UTC (polygon last daily bar) · Evidence through Nov 4, 2026
What has changed in the case for owning it?
Market Ontology's model values Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock at $89.09 per share against $67.04 (+32.9%). 7 dated developments in the last 45 days reach the position.
| Development | Evidence | Assumption affected | Consequence for the case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 · Par Petroleum tops Q3 EPS expectations by 60.9% on refining strength | 1 source | operating cash flow expansion via realized crack spreads | Supports the case for owning |
| Nov 4, 2026 · Par Petroleum posts Q3 EPS of $10.70, beating estimates by 60.9% | 1 source | free cash flow expansion via 60.9% quarterly earnings surprise | Supports the case for owning |
| Nov 4, 2026 · Par Petroleum Q3 EPS hits $10.70 on refining margin strength | 1 source | operating leverage via realized refining crack spreads | Supports the case for owning |
| Nov 4, 2026 · Par Petroleum reported Q3 EPS of $10.70 versus $6.65 consensus | 1 source | refining margin expansion and earnings beat | Supports the case for owning |
| Nov 4, 2026 · Par Petroleum posted Q3 EPS of $10.70 on 51.6% revenue expansion | 1 source | gross refining margin expansion through elevated product pricing | Supports the case for owning |
What changes if you sell?
| Keep current position | Sell selected quantity | Exit position | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shares remaining | 100 | 50 | 0 |
| Estimated proceeds after included transaction costs | — | $3,350 | $6,701 |
| Downside case ($60.38) outcome | −$666 | −$333 | $0 |
| Upside case ($130.74) outcome | $6,370 | $3,185 | $0 |
| Remaining exposure | $6,704 | $3,352 | $0 |
Included costs: an assumed 5 bps for commission and spread. Tax treatment: not calculated; cost basis is not used in this comparison.
Undecided: sale proceeds and remaining exposure are calculated; replacement performance is left unresolved.
What would justify keeping the remaining position?
- Revenue growth (yr 1) holds near 0.65%: Trailing 4-year revenue CAGR of 0.6%, faded toward terminal growth over 5 years.
- Operating margin (steady-state) holds near 5.51%: Anchored to mean operating margin of 5.5% across the last 4 reported periods.
- Discount rate (WACC) holds near 7.88%: CAPM baseline: 4.88% risk-free + β0.30 × 5.5% ERP = 7.88%.
What would justify investigating it again after an exit?
- Implied revenue growth (yr 1, faded to terminal) moves relative to -9.39%: First-year growth that, on the same model, reconciles the current price holding operating margin, 85% cash conversion, WACC and terminal g fixed.
- Implied steady-state operating margin moves relative to 4.32%: Operating margin the current price requires on the same model at modeled growth, tax, cash conversion and WACC.
- The price falls below the downside value of $60.38.
Preserve the reasoning behind the sale.
Save the reduction you're considering, the evidence behind it, and your conditions for reviewing the remaining position. If you exit, keep the research and specify what would justify revisiting PARR.
Should I buy?Should I hold?Should I hedge?How to hedgeImpact ledger