Should you buy Pultegroup, Inc. at $124.74?
See what the price requires, what could disappoint, and how the purchase changes your exposure.
Price as of Nov 1, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC (polygon last daily bar) · Financial evidence through Feb 4, 2026
Inspect the public analysis below, or continue directly with your own investment case.
What has to happen for the investment to work?
The selected assumptions produce $97.15–$165.75 per share. Discount rate explains the largest part of that range. Test it below.
| Investment driver | Reported evidence | Base-case assumption | What the price requires |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | Trailing 4-year revenue CAGR of 2.7%, faded toward terminal growth over 5 years. | 2.66% | 2.78% |
| Cash margin | 8.8% trailing (Polygon vX financials) | Operating margin (steady-state): 15% | Implied steady-state FCF margin: 8.87% |
| Discount rate | CAPM baseline: 4.98% risk-free + β0.86 × 5.5% ERP = 9.73%. | 9.73% | Held fixed |
Compare the cases before committing capital.
| Downside | Base | Upside | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow vs stored forecast | −15% | Stored | +15% |
| Discount rate | 10.73% | 9.73% | 8.73% |
| Calculated value per share | $97.15 | $126.70 | $165.75 |
| Difference from reference price | -22.1% | +1.6% | +32.9% |
| Main condition | Cash generation disappoints and capital costs more | Stored forecast holds | Cash generation beats and capital costs less |
These are conditional valuation results. Each case's assumptions are listed in the table.
What would the purchase mean for you?
Investigate the assumption with the largest effect.
Changing discount rate from 9.73% to 10.73% changes the calculated value from $126.70 to $112.51.
The supporting evidence is CAPM baseline: 4.98% risk-free + β0.86 × 5.5% ERP = 9.73%..
Keep this buying case under review.
Save your proposed investment, selected assumptions, and scenarios. Choose the developments that should reopen the decision, then return to the same case when the evidence changes.
What could change the conclusion?
- Sep 17, 2026 · Lennar Q3 Revenue Drops 8.7% and Misses Estimates on Weak Deliveries — sector multiple de-rating from order volume softness
- Sep 17, 2026 · Lennar Q3 Revenue Falls 8.7% to $8.05B, Missing Estimates on Deliveries — sector volume drag across single-family construction
Next relevant disclosure or review condition: Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. (last filing Feb 4, 2026).
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