Should you sell Union Pacific Corp. or reduce the position?
Calculate what you would remove, what you would retain, and which assumptions support continuing to own it.
Price as of Nov 2, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC (polygon last daily bar) · Evidence through Nov 1, 2026
What has changed in the case for owning it?
Market Ontology's model values Union Pacific Corp. at $207.05 per share against $304.00 (-31.9%). 4 dated developments in the last 45 days reach the position.
| Development | Evidence | Assumption affected | Consequence for the case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 · Canadian National Railway posts 18% EPS growth on efficiency gains | 1 sources | rail operating leverage can spill over to peer valuation comparables | Supports the case for owning |
| Nov 1, 2026 · Canadian National Q3 adjusted EPS rises 18% as capex cycle concludes | 1 sources | North American Class I rail operating ratio benchmark repricing | Mixed |
| Nov 1, 2026 · Canadian National Rail Q3 EPS Rises 18% as Employee Productivity Gains 7% | 1 sources | Class I railroad volume conversion benchmark | Mixed |
| Oct 22, 2026 · CSX delivers 30% Q3 EPS growth as intermodal freight volumes hit record | 1 source | Class I railroad intermodal volume sentiment read-through | Supports the case for owning |
What changes if you sell?
| Keep current position | Sell selected quantity | Exit position | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shares remaining | 100 | 50 | 0 |
| Estimated proceeds after included transaction costs | — | $15,192 | $30,385 |
| Downside case ($119.35) outcome | −$18,465 | −$9,233 | $0 |
| Upside case ($365.18) outcome | $6,118 | $3,059 | $0 |
| Remaining exposure | $30,400 | $15,200 | $0 |
Included costs: an assumed 5 bps for commission and spread. Tax treatment: not calculated; cost basis is not used in this comparison.
Undecided: sale proceeds and remaining exposure are calculated; replacement performance is left unresolved.
What would justify keeping the remaining position?
- Revenue growth (yr 1) holds near -0.49%: Trailing 4-year revenue CAGR of -0.5%, faded toward terminal growth over 5 years.
- Operating margin (steady-state) holds near 39.44%: Anchored to mean operating margin of 39.4% across the last 4 reported periods.
- Discount rate (WACC) holds near 5.98%: CAPM baseline: 4.98% risk-free + β0.16 × 5.5% ERP = 5.84%.
What would justify investigating it again after an exit?
- Implied revenue growth (next yr → terminal) moves relative to 14.38%: Growth rate that reconciles the current share price to a 5y DCF holding margin, WACC and terminal g fixed.
- Implied steady-state FCF margin moves relative to 31.5%: FCF margin the market needs to justify the current price at modeled growth and WACC.
- The price falls below the downside value of $119.35.
Preserve the reasoning behind the sale.
Save the reduction you're considering, the evidence behind it, and your conditions for reviewing the remaining position. If you exit, keep the research and specify what would justify revisiting UNP.
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