Does the reason you own Valero Energy Corporation still hold?
Review the position using today's evidence. Identify what still supports it, what has changed, and what deserves another decision.
Price as of Nov 1, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC (polygon last daily bar) · Evidence through Oct 30, 2026
The current case for continuing to hold
The stored model values Valero Energy Corporation at $430.22 per share against $399.66, versus $259.67 at the previous review on Oct 25, 2026. The case rests on the conditions below.
| Reason to hold | Supporting evidence | Contrary evidence | Condition to review |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (yr 1): -11.4%Supported by the reviewed evidence | Trailing 4-year revenue CAGR of -11.4%, faded toward terminal growth over 5 years. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
| Operating margin (steady-state): 5.64%Supported by the reviewed evidence | Anchored to mean operating margin of 5.6% across the last 4 reported periods. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
| Discount rate (WACC): 5.98%Supported by the reviewed evidence | CAPM baseline: 4.98% risk-free + β-0.42 × 5.5% ERP = 2.65%. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
What changed since the previous review?
- Nov 1, 2026 · model $430.22 vs price $399.66 · discount rate 5.98% · Undervalued
- Oct 25, 2026 · model $259.67 vs price $419.28 · discount rate 5.96% · Overvalued
- Oct 18, 2026 · model $254.36 vs price $444.71 · discount rate 6.10% · Overvalued
- Oct 30, 2026 · Valero earnings highlight refining margins and freight discounts
- Oct 30, 2026 · Valero cites high freight costs and near-record refinery utilization
- Oct 14, 2026 · Valero Surges Near 5% on Citigroup Price Target Hike to $485
- Oct 14, 2026 · Citigroup Raises Valero Energy Price Target to $485 on Refining Margins
Review your holding.
The observation that deserves your attention
Discount rate moves the value most: 5.98% → 6.98% gives $332.44.
Evidence to inspect: 10-yr UST (risk-free) (FRED DGS10); Equity beta (vs SPY, 1y) (Polygon daily bars); Equity risk premium (Damodaran (institutional consensus)).
Make your next review start with what changed.
Save your reasons for holding, the assumptions they depend on, and the conditions you want monitored. When relevant evidence changes, reopen the position with the previous and revised cases side by side.
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