Does the reason you own The Wendy's Company still hold?
Review the position using today's evidence. Identify what still supports it, what has changed, and what deserves another decision.
Price as of Oct 20, 2026, 1:45 AM UTC (polygon last daily bar) · Evidence through Oct 13, 2026
The current case for continuing to hold
The stored model values The Wendy's Company at $8.35 per share against $6.70, versus $7.91 at the previous review on Oct 13, 2026. The case rests on the conditions below.
| Reason to hold | Supporting evidence | Contrary evidence | Condition to review |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (yr 1): -10.07%Contradictory evidence requires review | Trailing 4-year revenue CAGR of -10.1%, faded toward terminal growth over 5 years. | Major Wendy's Franchisee Meritage Files Chapter 11 on $150M Debt Default | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
| Operating margin (steady-state): 16.47%Supported by the reviewed evidence | Anchored to mean operating margin of 16.5% across the last 4 reported periods. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
| Discount rate (WACC): 6.88%Changed since the previous review | CAPM baseline: 5.09% risk-free + β0.32 × 5.5% ERP = 6.88%. | None in the last 45 days | Re-underwrite if revenue growth, margins, or the cost of capital diverge materially from the stored assumptions. |
What changed since the previous review?
- Oct 20, 2026 · model $8.35 vs price $6.70 · discount rate 6.88% · Undervalued
- Oct 13, 2026 · model $7.91 vs price $6.23 · discount rate 7.05% · Undervalued
- Oct 6, 2026 · model $7.78 vs price $6.12 · discount rate 7.11% · Undervalued
- Oct 13, 2026 · Wendy's Falls 65.6% Over Three Years as $4.8B Debt Load Weighs on Valuation
- Sep 19, 2026 · Major Wendy's Franchisee Meritage Files Chapter 11 on $150M Debt Default
- Sep 19, 2026 · Wendy's Major Franchisee Meritage Files Chapter 11 After $150M Loan Default
- Sep 19, 2026 · Meritage Hospitality Files Chapter 11 After $150M City National Bank Default
Review your holding.
The observation that deserves your attention
Revenue growth (yr 1): contradictory evidence requires review.
Evidence to inspect: 10-yr UST (risk-free) (FRED DGS10); Equity beta (vs SPY, 1y) (Polygon daily bars); Equity risk premium (Damodaran (institutional consensus)).
Make your next review start with what changed.
Save your reasons for holding, the assumptions they depend on, and the conditions you want monitored. When relevant evidence changes, reopen the position with the previous and revised cases side by side.
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