Event
CPI day dashboard
The US CPI release happens monthly, around the 10th-15th, at 8:30 AM ET. The cleanest way to trade or read CPI day is to know the consensus and whisper before the print, watch the 2Y Treasury and USD reactions in the first 60 seconds, then confirm with equity futures and gold. If 2Y, USD, and SPX all agree, the move is real. If one disagrees, the print is being faded. Market Ontology's macro dashboard provides the full operating picture before, during, and after the release.
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- Pre-print
- Consensus, whisper, options-implied move.
- Reaction order
- 2Y → USD → SPX → gold. Within 5 minutes.
- Confirmation rule
- All four agree = real. Disagreement = fade or wait.
- Recap
- Settle reading at 9:30 AM open is the durable signal.
What CPI day is
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Consumer Price Index monthly, typically the second week, at 8:30 AM ET. It is the single most-watched US inflation print and one of the most reliable vol events of the month.
Pre-print checklist
- Consensus headline and core CPI (economist median)
- Whisper (buy-side estimate) - often differs from consensus
- Options-implied move - straddle pricing
- Recent 2Y direction - positioning context
- Recent USD direction - confirmation context
During the print
The reaction chain in order:
- 2Y Treasury yield - moves within seconds
- USD index - within minutes
- SPX futures - within minutes
- Gold - reacts to real yields
- Sector rotation - banks, utilities, growth
If all four agree in the same direction, the move is real and the trade is to follow. If one disagrees, the print is being faded - fade or wait.
Post-print recap
The 9:30 AM equity-market open reaction is more informative than the initial 8:30 reaction. Look at where 2Y, USD, and SPX settle in the first 30 minutes of cash trading.
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