Event
FOMC day dashboard
FOMC day has three reaction windows: the 2:00 PM ET statement (immediate 2Y move), the 2:00 PM Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot in projection meetings (terminal-rate repricing), and the 2:30 PM press conference (often reverses the initial move). The 3:00 PM market settle is the durable signal. Trading the 2:00 PM headline before reading the SEP and hearing Powell is the most expensive mistake.
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- 2:00 PM statement
- Diff vs prior. Forward-guidance language matters most.
- 2:00 PM SEP
- Quarterly only. Dots, growth, inflation, U-rate revisions.
- 2:30 PM presser
- Tone often reverses statement reaction.
- 3:00 PM settle
- The real signal. Where 2Y, SPX, USD finish.
The FOMC schedule
The Federal Open Market Committee meets 8 times per year. Quarterly meetings (March, June, September, December) include the Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot.
2:00 PM ET - Statement
- Statement language diff vs prior
- Forward-guidance changes (most important)
- Vote dissents
2:00 PM ET - SEP (quarterly only)
- Dot plot - median, distribution, hawkish/dovish skew
- Growth, inflation, unemployment revisions
- Terminal rate (long-run dot)
2:30 PM ET - Press conference
- Powell's tone vs the statement
- How he characterizes recent data
- Reaction-function clarity
3:00 PM ET - Market settle
- 2Y Treasury - the policy-path verdict
- USD - the rate-differential read
- SPX - the discount-rate + risk read
- VIX - the uncertainty read
What to watch in markets
- 2Y vs 10Y move - flatten or steepen
- USD direction - hawkish vs dovish read
- SPX sector rotation - banks, defensives, growth
- HY OAS - credit-market verdict
- Fed funds futures - terminal-rate repricing
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