Event
NFP day dashboard
The US Non-Farm Payrolls report is released the first Friday of each month at 8:30 AM ET. The signal is rarely in the headline number - it is in the prior-month revisions, the average hourly earnings (AHE) wage growth, and the unemployment-rate composition (especially participation). The reaction chain is similar to CPI but with bigger gaps: 2Y first, USD second, equities third, with sector rotation across banks, defensives, and growth.
- Headline NFP - Net jobs. Noisy - watch the 3M average instead.
- Revisions - Last 2 months - often more important than the new print.
- AHE - Wage growth - Fed-relevant inflation channel.
- U-rate composition - Participation rate matters as much as headline U.
What's released
Establishment survey:
- Non-farm payrolls (headline)
- Average hourly earnings (AHE)
- Average weekly hours
- Sectoral breakdown
Household survey:
- Unemployment rate (U-3)
- Labor-force participation rate
- U-6 underemployment
Pre-print checklist
- Consensus headline payrolls
- Consensus U-rate
- Consensus AHE MoM and YoY
- Recent ADP print (often diverges)
- Initial claims trend (4-week MA)
Reaction chain
- Headline - first reaction
- Revisions - often reverses the headline
- AHE - wage-growth channel matters for Fed
- U-rate + participation - composition story
Cross-asset:
- 2Y Treasury - within seconds
- USD - within minutes
- SPX, sectors - within 30 minutes
- HY OAS, vol - into the close
What usually traps people
Trading the headline beat/miss. NFP is too revised, too noisy, and too multi-dimensional for a one-number reaction. Read all five components in order.