Leading IndicatorsInstitute for Supply ManagementMonthly
ISM Manufacturing New Orders
What is ISM Manufacturing New Orders?
A diffusion sub-index of the ISM Manufacturing PMI measuring new orders received by purchasing managers. It is the most forward-looking component of the report.
Why it matters
New Orders leads the headline PMI by 1-2 months and leads industrial production and S&P 500 EPS by 6-9 months. Sustained readings above 55 historically correspond with earnings upgrades; below 45 with downgrades.
How to read prints
When it rises
Forward manufacturing demand strengthening; earnings tailwind.
When it falls
Forward demand weakening; earnings downgrade risk rising.
Frequently asked
What is ISM Manufacturing New Orders?⌄
A diffusion sub-index from the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI survey, measuring whether purchasing managers report more, same, or fewer new orders vs. the prior month.
Why is it a leading indicator?⌄
New orders are the earliest signal in the production cycle. They lead production, inventory, employment, and earnings by 1-9 months.
What levels matter?⌄
Above 50: expansion. Above 55: solid demand. Below 50: contraction. Below 45: recession risk if sustained.
What is the New Orders / Inventories ratio?⌄
New Orders divided by Inventories. Rising above 1 signals tightening conditions and is a strong cyclicals signal; falling below 1 signals destocking and weakness.
Track it on Market Ontology
Monitor ISM Manufacturing New Orders in real time on Macro Regime, alongside regime classification, transmission mapping, and cross-asset context.
| Source | Institute for Supply Management |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Category | Leading Indicators |
| Unit | index |
| Related Module | Macro Regime |
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