Intelligence Feed event · Policy · 2026-07-24

    July Fed Hike Probability Triples to 34.7% on Inflation and Oil

    Question

    July Fed Hike Probability Triples to 34.7% on Inflation and Oil

    Direct answer

    The CME FedWatch tool shows a significant shift in sentiment just days before the July FOMC meeting. The combination of sticky Core PCE at 3.4% and the recent $100 oil print has forced traders to hedge against a 25bps hike. This hawkish shift is occurring despite recent market volatility, suggesting the Fed may prioritize inflation containment over growth support in the near term.

    Original publisher
    Market Ontology
    Evidence through
    2026-07-24
    Published
    2026-10-20
    Revision
    1 · 2026-10-20

    Cite as: Market Ontology, “July Fed Hike Probability Triples to 34.7% on Inflation and Oil”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-07-24. https://marketontology.com/market-events/2026-07-24/july-fed-hike-probability-triples-to-34-7-on-inflation-and-oil-7a9616

    POLICY
    July Fed Hike Probability Triples to 34.7% on Inflation and Oil
    The CME FedWatch tool shows a significant shift in sentiment just days before the July FOMC meeting. The combination of sticky Core PCE at 3.4% and the recent $100 oil print has forced traders to hedge against a 25bps hike. This hawkish shift is occurring despite recent market volatility, suggesting the Fed may prioritize inflation containment over growth support in the near term.
    DGS2DXY
    Impact
    90
    JUL 24
    SIG
    90%
    DGS2DXY
    July Fed Hike Probability Triples to 34.7% on Inflation and Oil
    The CME FedWatch tool shows a significant shift in sentiment just days before the July FOMC meeting. The combination of sticky Core PCE at 3.4% and the recent $100 oil print has forced traders to hedge against a 25bps hike. This hawkish shift is occurring despite recent market volatility, suggesting the Fed may prioritize inflation containment over growth support in the near term.
    → Hawkish repricing of the front-end curve via higher terminal rate expectations.
    Impact
    The CME FedWatch tool shows a significant shift in sentiment just days before the July FOMC meeting. The combination of sticky Core PCE at 3.4% and the recent $100 oil print has forced traders to hedge against a 25bps hike. This hawkish shift is occurring despite recent market volatility, suggesting the Fed may prioritize inflation containment over growth support in the near term.
    Affected
    DGS2DXY
    Transmission
    Hawkish repricing of the front-end curve via higher terminal rate expectations.

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    What happened next

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