Intelligence Feed event · Macro · 2026-07-29

    Australia Q2 CPI undershoots RBA forecasts, sharply reducing odds of further 2026 rate hikes

    Question

    Australia Q2 CPI undershoots RBA forecasts, sharply reducing odds of further 2026 rate hikes

    Direct answer

    Australian 3-year government bond futures rallied as the 3-year yield fell about 9bp to near 4.48%, while rate futures repriced to roughly a 50% chance of any additional 2026 RBA hike.

    Original publisher
    Market Ontology
    Evidence through
    2026-07-29
    Published
    2026-10-20
    Revision
    1 · 2026-10-20

    Cite as: Market Ontology, “Australia Q2 CPI undershoots RBA forecasts, sharply reducing odds of further 2026 rate hikes”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-07-29. https://marketontology.com/market-events/2026-07-29/australia-q2-cpi-undershoots-rba-forecasts-sharply-reducing-odds-of-further-2026-2c816b

    MACRO
    Australia Q2 CPI undershoots RBA forecasts, sharply reducing odds of further 2026 rate hikes
    Australian 3-year government bond futures rallied as the 3-year yield fell about 9bp to near 4.48%, while rate futures repriced to roughly a 50% chance of any additional 2026 RBA hike.
    X3Y.AUAUDUSDS&P/ASX 200
    Impact
    79
    JUL 29
    SIG
    X3Y.AUAUDUSDS&P/ASX 200
    Australia Q2 CPI undershoots RBA forecasts, sharply reducing odds of further 2026 rate hikes
    Australian 3-year government bond futures rallied as the 3-year yield fell about 9bp to near 4.48%, while rate futures repriced to roughly a 50% chance of any additional 2026 RBA hike.
    Impact
    Australian 3-year government bond futures rallied as the 3-year yield fell about 9bp to near 4.48%, while rate futures repriced to roughly a 50% chance of any additional 2026 RBA hike.
    Affected
    X3Y.AUAUDUSDS&P/ASX 200
    Source facts

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    What happened next

    Price follow-up pending — no stored daily closes for these assets yet.

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    Sources

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