TD Securities and local strategists affirm expectations for further 25 bp RBNZ hike in September despite mixed labour signals
Question
TD Securities and local strategists affirm expectations for further 25 bp RBNZ hike in September despite mixed labour signals
Direct answer
Interest‑rate futures and OIS maintained a roughly 90% implied probability of an OCR move to 2.75% by September, supporting NZD rate markets and limiting downside in NZD/USD.
- Original publisher
- Market Ontology
- Evidence through
- 2026-08-05
- Published
- 2026-10-20
- Revision
- 1 · 2026-10-20
Cite as: Market Ontology, “TD Securities and local strategists affirm expectations for further 25 bp RBNZ hike in September despite mixed labour signals”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-08-05. https://marketontology.com/market-events/2026-08-05/td-securities-and-local-strategists-affirm-expectations-for-further-25-bp-rbnz-h-9ac9fa
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What happened next
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Sources
Related
- 2026-08-04Reserve Bank of New Zealand reiterates tightening bias after July OCR hike to 2.50% amid strong core inflationAUD/NZD NZ 2Y SWAP NZD/USD
- 2026-08-03RBNZ raises OCR by 25 bps and signals further tightening to contain inflationNZ 10Y GOVERNMENT BOND NZ 2Y GOVERNMENT BOND NZDUSD NZX 50
- 2026-07-30New Zealand Q2 CPI hits a two-year high at 4.10%NZD/USD
- 2026-07-30RBNZ lifts the Official Cash Rate to 2.50% and signals further tightening may be neededNZ 2Y NZD/JPY NZD/USD
- 2026-07-30RBNZ appoints Byron Pepper as Deputy Chair of its BoardNZD/USD NZGB 10Y
- 2026-07-30New Zealand Q2 CPI hits a two-year high at 4.10%NZ 2Y NZD/USD
- 2026-07-29RBNZ raises the OCR by 25 bps to 2.50%NZD/USD NZGB 2Y NZX 50
- 2026-07-28RBNZ flags persistent inflation risks after July policy reviewNZD/USD NZGB 2Y NZX 50
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