Intelligence Feed event · Policy · 2026-08-11

    Fed August Forecast Projects Core CPI Reacceleration; September Hike Now a Toss-Up

    Question

    Fed August Forecast Projects Core CPI Reacceleration; September Hike Now a Toss-Up

    Direct answer

    The Federal Reserve's latest internal projections indicate that the disinflationary trend may be stalling. With August core CPI projected at 0.27%, the annualized pace remains uncomfortably above the 2% target. This shift in data puts the FOMC on a collision course for its September meeting. Previously, markets had priced in a high probability of a hold, but the new forecast has shifted the odds toward a potential 25bps hike.

    Original publisher
    Market Ontology
    Evidence through
    2026-08-11
    Published
    2026-10-20
    Revision
    1 · 2026-10-20

    Cite as: Market Ontology, “Fed August Forecast Projects Core CPI Reacceleration; September Hike Now a Toss-Up”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-08-11. https://marketontology.com/market-events/2026-08-11/fed-august-forecast-projects-core-cpi-reacceleration-september-hike-now-a-toss-u-793457

    POLICY
    Fed August Forecast Projects Core CPI Reacceleration; September Hike Now a Toss-Up
    The Federal Reserve's latest internal projections indicate that the disinflationary trend may be stalling. With August core CPI projected at 0.27%, the annualized pace remains uncomfortably above the 2% target. This shift in data puts the FOMC on a collision course for its September meeting. Previously, markets had priced in a high probability of a hold, but the new forecast has shifted the odds toward a potential 25bps hike.
    DXYQQQ
    Impact
    91
    AUG 11
    SIG
    90%
    DXYQQQ
    Fed August Forecast Projects Core CPI Reacceleration; September Hike Now a Toss-Up
    The Federal Reserve's latest internal projections indicate that the disinflationary trend may be stalling. With August core CPI projected at 0.27%, the annualized pace remains uncomfortably above the 2% target. This shift in data puts the FOMC on a collision course for its September meeting. Previously, markets had priced in a high probability of a hold, but the new forecast has shifted the odds toward a potential 25bps hike.
    → Higher terminal rate expectations via hawkish repricing of the front-end curve.
    Impact
    The Federal Reserve's latest internal projections indicate that the disinflationary trend may be stalling. With August core CPI projected at 0.27%, the annualized pace remains uncomfortably above the 2% target. This shift in data puts the FOMC on a collision course for its September meeting. Previously, markets had priced in a high probability of a hold, but the new forecast has shifted the odds toward a potential 25bps hike.
    Affected
    DXYQQQ
    Transmission
    Higher terminal rate expectations via hawkish repricing of the front-end curve.

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    What happened next

    AssetCallBase close+1 day+5 days+20 days
    QQQWatch718.45 2026-08-11+0.73%-0.13%-0.30%

    Closing prices from stored daily bars; returns measured from the last close on or before the event date. Not a recommendation.

    No verifiable public source recorded for this card.

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