Intelligence Feed event · Macro · 2026-08-13

    September Rate Hike Odds Plunge to 44% After July Jobs Loss

    Question

    September Rate Hike Odds Plunge to 44% After July Jobs Loss

    Direct answer

    The July employment data has significantly altered the Fed's trajectory. With a net loss of 23,000 jobs, the narrative of a resilient labor market is under pressure. This has led to a sharp decline in CME FedWatch probabilities for a September hike. The dilemma for Chair Warsh is the potential for a policy error; raising rates into a contracting labor market could accelerate a recession, while holding may allow inflation to linger.

    Original publisher
    Market Ontology
    Evidence through
    2026-08-13
    Published
    2026-10-20
    Revision
    1 · 2026-10-20

    Cite as: Market Ontology, “September Rate Hike Odds Plunge to 44% After July Jobs Loss”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-08-13. https://marketontology.com/market-events/2026-08-13/september-rate-hike-odds-plunge-to-44-after-july-jobs-loss-e48420

    MACRO
    September Rate Hike Odds Plunge to 44% After July Jobs Loss
    The July employment data has significantly altered the Fed's trajectory. With a net loss of 23,000 jobs, the narrative of a resilient labor market is under pressure. This has led to a sharp decline in CME FedWatch probabilities for a September hike. The dilemma for Chair Warsh is the potential for a policy error; raising rates into a contracting labor market could accelerate a recession, while holding may allow inflation to linger.
    CME
    Impact
    92
    AUG 13
    SIG
    90%
    CME
    September Rate Hike Odds Plunge to 44% After July Jobs Loss
    The July employment data has significantly altered the Fed's trajectory. With a net loss of 23,000 jobs, the narrative of a resilient labor market is under pressure. This has led to a sharp decline in CME FedWatch probabilities for a September hike. The dilemma for Chair Warsh is the potential for a policy error; raising rates into a contracting labor market could accelerate a recession, while holding may allow inflation to linger.
    → Dovish repricing of the front-end curve due to labor market contraction.
    Impact
    The July employment data has significantly altered the Fed's trajectory. With a net loss of 23,000 jobs, the narrative of a resilient labor market is under pressure. This has led to a sharp decline in CME FedWatch probabilities for a September hike. The dilemma for Chair Warsh is the potential for a policy error; raising rates into a contracting labor market could accelerate a recession, while holding may allow inflation to linger.
    Affected
    CME
    Transmission
    Dovish repricing of the front-end curve due to labor market contraction.

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    What happened next

    AssetCallBase close+1 day+5 days+20 days
    CMEMixed267.21 2026-08-13+0.97%+1.37%+3.12%

    Closing prices from stored daily bars; returns measured from the last close on or before the event date. Not a recommendation.

    No verifiable public source recorded for this card.

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