Chicago business activity index falls to 47.1 in August, signaling a contraction
Question
Chicago business activity index falls to 47.1 in August, signaling a contraction
Direct answer
The downside surprise points to softer US growth momentum and can lift Treasury prices while pressuring the dollar and cyclical equities.
- Original publisher
- Market Ontology
- Evidence through
- 2026-08-29
- Published
- 2026-10-20
- Revision
- 1 · 2026-10-20
Cite as: Market Ontology, “Chicago business activity index falls to 47.1 in August, signaling a contraction”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-08-29. https://marketontology.com/market-events/2026-08-29/chicago-business-activity-index-falls-to-47-1-in-august-signaling-a-contraction-05d0fe
How this development reaches the affected companies
| Asset | Exposure and channel | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| UST 2Y | weaker activity data can increase demand for front-end Treasuries on growth concerns | Upintraday | Chicago PMI printed 47.1 versus 57.9 expected |
| DXY | softer US growth data can trim dollar yields support versus peers | Downintraday | Chicago PMI missed consensus by a wide margin |
| SPY | a weaker manufacturing read can hurt cyclical sentiment | Downintraday | Chicago PMI fell back into contraction territory |
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What happened next
| Asset | Call | Base close | +1 day | +5 days | +20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | Downagreed | 769.35 2026-08-28 | -0.30% | +0.11% | -0.49% |
Closing prices from stored daily bars; returns measured from the last close on or before the event date. Not a recommendation.
Sources
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