Intelligence Feed event · Macro · 2026-09-01

    Chicago PMI falls back into contraction and misses expectations

    Question

    Chicago PMI falls back into contraction and misses expectations

    Direct answer

    U.S. cyclicals, industrial metals, and Treasury yields are exposed to weaker growth expectations if the report feeds into a softer national activity narrative.

    Original publisher
    Market Ontology
    Evidence through
    2026-09-01
    Published
    2026-10-20
    Revision
    1 · 2026-10-20

    Cite as: Market Ontology, “Chicago PMI falls back into contraction and misses expectations”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-09-01. https://marketontology.com/market-events/2026-09-01/chicago-pmi-falls-back-into-contraction-and-misses-expectations-9270af

    MACROSeverity High
    80

    U.S. cyclicals, industrial metals, and Treasury yields are exposed to weaker growth expectations if the report feeds into a softer national activity narrative.

    Transmission
    01 · Catalyst
    Chicago PMI falls back into contraction and misses expectations

    What happened next

    AssetCallBase close+1 day+5 days+20 days
    IEFUpdisagreed92.10 2026-09-01+0.09%-0.22%-3.03%
    IWMDownagreed290.57 2026-09-01+1.18%+0.02%-4.36%

    Closing prices from stored daily bars; returns measured from the last close on or before the event date. Not a recommendation.

    Sources

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