Intelligence Feed event · Macro · 2026-09-20

    FOMC Raises Rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% Under Chair Warsh

    Question

    FOMC Raises Rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% Under Chair Warsh

    Direct answer

    The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to increase the federal funds target rate to 3.75%-4.00% at its September 2026 meeting. The tightening action occurred under the leadership of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. During the post-meeting press conference, Warsh emphasized commitment to restoring inflation to the 2.0% benchmark with sufficient speed. This stance indicates potential for further policy tightening if inflation metrics remain sticky.

    Original publisher
    Market Ontology
    Evidence through
    2026-09-20
    Published
    2026-10-20
    Revision
    1 · 2026-10-21

    Cite as: Market Ontology, “FOMC Raises Rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% Under Chair Warsh”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-09-20. https://marketontology.com/market-events/2026-09-20/fomc-raises-rates-25bp-to-3-75-4-00-under-chair-warsh-c76664

    MACRO
    FOMC Raises Rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% Under Chair Warsh
    The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to increase the federal funds target rate to 3.75%-4.00% at its September 2026 meeting. The tightening action occurred under the leadership of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. During the post-meeting press conference, Warsh emphasized commitment to restoring inflation to the 2.0% benchmark with sufficient speed. This stance indicates potential for further policy tightening if inflation metrics remain sticky.
    DGS10SPY
    Impact
    91
    SEP 20
    SIG
    92%
    DGS10SPY
    FOMC Raises Rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% Under Chair Warsh
    The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to increase the federal funds target rate to 3.75%-4.00% at its September 2026 meeting. The tightening action occurred under the leadership of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. During the post-meeting press conference, Warsh emphasized commitment to restoring inflation to the 2.0% benchmark with sufficient speed. This stance indicates potential for further policy tightening if inflation metrics remain sticky.
    → A 25bp rate hike shifts front-end SOFR curves upward and increases debt service costs across non-financial corporate balance sheets.
    Impact
    The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to increase the federal funds target rate to 3.75%-4.00% at its September 2026 meeting. The tightening action occurred under the leadership of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. During the post-meeting press conference, Warsh emphasized commitment to restoring inflation to the 2.0% benchmark with sufficient speed. This stance indicates potential for further policy tightening if inflation metrics remain sticky.
    Affected
    DGS10SPY
    Transmission
    A 25bp rate hike shifts front-end SOFR curves upward and increases debt service costs across non-financial corporate balance sheets.

    How this development reaches the affected companies

    AssetExposure and channelDirectionEvidence
    DGS10policy rate expectations repricing short- and intermediate-term yieldsUp1-5dFOMC raised policy rate to 3.75%-4.00% with forward tightening bias
    SPYequity risk premium compression and higher discount ratesDown1-5dPolicy tightening increases the discount rate applied to corporate earnings

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    What happened next

    AssetCallBase close+1 day+5 days+20 days
    SPYDowndisagreed761.69 2026-09-18+1.55%+1.27%+0.20%

    Closing prices from stored daily bars; returns measured from the last close on or before the event date. Not a recommendation.

    No verifiable public source recorded for this card.

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