Bank of Canada warns new US tariffs could slash fourth-quarter growth below 1%
Question
Bank of Canada warns new US tariffs could slash fourth-quarter growth below 1%
Direct answer
Canadian domestic demand and rate-sensitive assets face a growth scare; CAD and TSX-linked cyclicals are exposed, while Canada front-end rates may price a less confident growth path.
- Original publisher
- Market Ontology
- Evidence through
- 2026-09-21
- Published
- 2026-10-20
- Revision
- 1 · 2026-10-20
Cite as: Market Ontology, “Bank of Canada warns new US tariffs could slash fourth-quarter growth below 1%”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-09-21. https://marketontology.com/market-events/2026-09-21/bank-of-canada-warns-new-us-tariffs-could-slash-fourth-quarter-growth-below-1-3d9df3
How this development reaches the affected companies
| Asset | Exposure and channel | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAD/USD | a weaker growth outlook and tariff shock reduce support for the Canadian dollar | Down1-5d | Macklem said new US tariffs could slash fourth-quarter growth below 1% |
| TSX | tariff-related growth uncertainty weighs on Canadian cyclicals and domestic demand names | Down1-5d | Macklem warned the tariffs threaten investment and hiring |
| CA2Y | slower growth can pull market pricing toward a less restrictive BoC path | Watch1-4w | the BoC governor highlighted a material downside hit to growth |
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What happened next
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Sources
Related
- 2026-10-04Canada's manufacturing PMI slows as U.S. tariffs weigh on export ordersC$ CAD/USD TSX
- 2026-10-02Canada weighs the impact of new 50% US tariffs on a range of Canadian goods in August trade dataCADUSD TSX
- 2026-10-02Canada weighs the impact of new 50% US tariffs on a range of Canadian goods in August trad → Bearish TSXTSX
- 2026-10-02Canada weighs the impact of new 50% US tariffs on a range of Canadian goods in August trade dataCADUSD TSX WMT
- 2026-09-30Canada-linked exporters face spillover as US goods trade deficit widens to $133 billion in AugustCNQ TSX USD/CAD
- 2026-09-29Statistics Canada says July GDP was essentially unchangedCADUSD CGB TSX
- 2026-09-24S&P/TSX Composite falls as basic materials slide and crude oil risesCNQ TSX XGD
- 2026-09-23US lawmakers warn tariffs on Canada could jeopardize local industries and supply chainsTSX USD/CAD XLI-0.09%
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