Chicago Fed National Activity Index falls to -0.04 in August
Question
Chicago Fed National Activity Index falls to -0.04 in August
Direct answer
A weaker activity print can support Treasuries and rate-cut-sensitive sectors, while it can weigh on cyclical stocks and the dollar through slower-growth expectations.
- Original publisher
- Market Ontology
- Evidence through
- 2026-09-21
- Published
- 2026-10-20
- Revision
- 1 · 2026-10-21
Cite as: Market Ontology, “Chicago Fed National Activity Index falls to -0.04 in August”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-09-21. https://marketontology.com/market-events/2026-09-21/chicago-fed-national-activity-index-falls-to-0-04-in-august-b5a038
How this development reaches the affected companies
| Asset | Exposure and channel | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | slower activity data generally boosts duration as traders lean toward easier policy | Up1-5d | the index fell to -0.04 from +0.08 |
| DXY | softer US growth data tends to pressure the dollar through lower yield expectations | Down1-5d | the Chicago Fed index moved below zero |
| XLY | weaker momentum can hurt consumer-discretionary and cyclical demand names | Down1-5d | the index signaled softer economic growth |
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What happened next
| Asset | Call | Base close | +1 day | +5 days | +20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | Updisagreed | 81.80 2026-09-21 | -0.06% | -3.89% | -2.86% |
| XLY | Downagreed | 112.23 2026-09-21 | +0.09% | -2.88% | Pending |
Closing prices from stored daily bars; returns measured from the last close on or before the event date. Not a recommendation.
Sources
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