JPMorgan says Middle East crude flows recover to 98% of pre-war levels as Hormuz crossings rise
Question
JPMorgan says Middle East crude flows recover to 98% of pre-war levels as Hormuz crossings rise
Direct answer
The recovery in physical flows can weigh on the immediate crude scarcity premium, while the warning about persistent risk limits the bearish implication for tanker and insurance markets.
- Original publisher
- Market Ontology
- Evidence through
- 2026-09-30
- Published
- 2026-10-20
- Revision
- 1 · 2026-10-20
Cite as: Market Ontology, “JPMorgan says Middle East crude flows recover to 98% of pre-war levels as Hormuz crossings rise”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-09-30. https://marketontology.com/market-events/2026-09-30/jpmorgan-says-middle-east-crude-flows-recover-to-98-of-pre-war-levels-as-hormuz-3f9d1c
How this development reaches the affected companies
| Asset | Exposure and channel | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRENT CRUDE | Higher regional export volumes reduce near-term fears of a physical supply shortfall. | Down1-5d | JPMorgan reported 17.5 million barrels per day of regional crude shipments and Hormuz flows near 13 million barrels per day. |
| BDTI | More tanker crossings increase available shipping activity, while continued danger preserves war-risk and insurance premia. | Mixed1-4w | JPMorgan said flows recovered but warned that higher crossings should not be mistaken for improved safety. |
| USO | Improved export throughput reduces the immediate supply-disruption premium in oil-linked instruments. | Down1-5d | Reported crude shipments recovered to 98% of pre-war levels. |
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What happened next
| Asset | Call | Base close | +1 day | +5 days | +20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | Downagreed | 145.66 2026-09-30 | +2.99% | -1.20% | Pending |
Closing prices from stored daily bars; returns measured from the last close on or before the event date. Not a recommendation.
Sources
Related
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