Intelligence Feed event · Macro · 2026-10-01

    Institute for Supply Management says US manufacturing held at 54.5 while input prices jumped in September

    Question

    Institute for Supply Management says US manufacturing held at 54.5 while input prices jumped in September

    Direct answer

    The stronger prices-paid signal supports breakeven inflation and commodity-linked exposures, while keeping pressure on duration and rate-sensitive assets.

    Original publisher
    Market Ontology
    Evidence through
    2026-10-01
    Published
    2026-10-20
    Revision
    1 · 2026-10-21

    Cite as: Market Ontology, “Institute for Supply Management says US manufacturing held at 54.5 while input prices jumped in September”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-10-01. https://marketontology.com/market-events/2026-10-01/institute-for-supply-management-says-us-manufacturing-held-at-54-5-while-input-p-d13299

    MACRO
    Institute for Supply Management says US manufacturing held at 54.5 while input prices jumped in September
    The stronger prices-paid signal supports breakeven inflation and commodity-linked exposures, while keeping pressure on duration and rate-sensitive assets.
    TIPIEFCL
    Impact
    79
    OCT 1
    SIG
    TIPIEFCL
    Institute for Supply Management says US manufacturing held at 54.5 while input prices jumped in September
    The stronger prices-paid signal supports breakeven inflation and commodity-linked exposures, while keeping pressure on duration and rate-sensitive assets.
    Impact
    The stronger prices-paid signal supports breakeven inflation and commodity-linked exposures, while keeping pressure on duration and rate-sensitive assets.
    Affected
    TIPIEFCL
    Source facts

    How this development reaches the affected companies

    AssetExposure and channelDirectionEvidence
    TIPfirmer input-price pressure supports inflation-protected bonds versus nominalsUp1-5dISM prices-paid rose to 77.9 from 71.1
    IEFsticky producer prices can keep real yields and nominal yields elevatedDown1-5dmanufacturing input prices increased sharply in September
    CLbroader input-cost inflation can support commodity inflation hedgesUp1-5dprices paid for inputs jumped materially in the ISM survey

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    What happened next

    AssetCallBase close+1 day+5 days+20 days
    CLUpdisagreed84.53 2026-10-01-0.32%PendingPending
    IEFDowndisagreed89.30 2026-10-01-0.28%+0.17%Pending
    TIPUpagreed104.31 2026-10-01-0.19%+0.20%Pending

    Closing prices from stored daily bars; returns measured from the last close on or before the event date. Not a recommendation.

    Sources

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