Intelligence Feed event · Equity · 2026-10-13

    S&P 500 CAPE ratio reaches nearly 41 following 21% annualized four-year gain

    Question

    S&P 500 CAPE ratio reaches nearly 41 following 21% annualized four-year gain

    Direct answer

    Market historical metrics indicate that the S&P 500 index has compounded at 21% per year over the trailing four-year window. This pace is more than double the long-term century baseline. The accompanying expansion of the Shiller CAPE multiple to nearly 41 places index valuation at percentiles previously reached only during the peaks of 1929 and 1999.

    Original publisher
    Market Ontology
    Evidence through
    2026-10-13
    Published
    2026-10-20
    Revision
    1 · 2026-10-20

    Cite as: Market Ontology, “S&P 500 CAPE ratio reaches nearly 41 following 21% annualized four-year gain”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-10-13. https://marketontology.com/market-events/2026-10-13/s-p-500-cape-ratio-reaches-nearly-41-following-21-annualized-four-year-gain-1a1656

    EQUITY
    S&P 500 CAPE ratio reaches nearly 41 following 21% annualized four-year gain
    Market historical metrics indicate that the S&P 500 index has compounded at 21% per year over the trailing four-year window. This pace is more than double the long-term century baseline. The accompanying expansion of the Shiller CAPE multiple to nearly 41 places index valuation at percentiles previously reached only during the peaks of 1929 and 1999.
    SPY
    Impact
    77
    OCT 13
    SIG
    85%
    SPY
    S&P 500 CAPE ratio reaches nearly 41 following 21% annualized four-year gain
    Market historical metrics indicate that the S&P 500 index has compounded at 21% per year over the trailing four-year window. This pace is more than double the long-term century baseline. The accompanying expansion of the Shiller CAPE multiple to nearly 41 places index valuation at percentiles previously reached only during the peaks of 1929 and 1999.
    → High cyclically adjusted multiples compress the equity risk premium over baseline yields, increasing equity vulnerability to discount rate shocks across the S&P 500.
    Impact
    Market historical metrics indicate that the S&P 500 index has compounded at 21% per year over the trailing four-year window. This pace is more than double the long-term century baseline. The accompanying expansion of the Shiller CAPE multiple to nearly 41 places index valuation at percentiles previously reached only during the peaks of 1929 and 1999.
    Affected
    SPY
    Transmission
    High cyclically adjusted multiples compress the equity risk premium over baseline yields, increasing equity vulnerability to discount rate shocks across the S&P 500.

    How this development reaches the affected companies

    AssetExposure and channelDirectionEvidence
    SPYequity risk premium compression and multiple de-rating vulnerabilityMixed1-3mSource explicitly notes S&P 500 CAPE ratio reaching nearly 41.

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    What happened next

    AssetCallBase close+1 day+5 days+20 days
    SPYMixed778.01 2026-10-13-1.08%PendingPending

    Closing prices from stored daily bars; returns measured from the last close on or before the event date. Not a recommendation.

    No verifiable public source recorded for this card.

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