Iranian attacks cut average oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to 11.62 million barrels per day
Question
Iranian attacks cut average oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to 11.62 million barrels per day
Direct answer
The measured reduction in throughput provides a direct supply constraint and reinforces the crude risk premium, while weaker flows increase tanker rerouting and regional product-market stress.
- Original publisher
- Market Ontology
- Evidence through
- 2026-10-16
- Published
- 2026-10-20
- Revision
- 1 · 2026-10-21
Cite as: Market Ontology, “Iranian attacks cut average oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to 11.62 million barrels per day”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-10-16. https://marketontology.com/market-events/2026-10-16/iranian-attacks-cut-average-oil-flows-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-to-11-62-mill-36bea8
How this development reaches the affected companies
| Asset | Exposure and channel | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| BZ=F | Hormuz throughput running materially below baseline tightens expected seaborne crude supply | Up1-5d | Kpler measured 11.62 million barrels per day versus a 17.15 million-barrel-per-day baseline |
| CL=F | Lower Gulf export flows raise the marginal replacement cost for US and global crude buyers | Up1-5d | Kpler attributed sharply lower Gulf crude flows to intensified attacks |
| FRO | Disrupted Gulf flows increase voyage complexity, rerouting and tanker risk premia | Up1-4w | Kpler expected a slower and more uneven Hormuz recovery absent a political deal |
| XLE | Higher benchmark crude prices improve the near-term revenue outlook for energy producers | Up1-5d | Oil was headed for a weekly gain as Middle East supply uncertainty and lower Hormuz flows lifted the risk premium |
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What happened next
| Asset | Call | Base close | +1 day | +5 days | +20 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRO | Updisagreed | 52.49 2026-10-16 | -3.37% | Pending | Pending |
| XLE | Updisagreed | 68.24 2026-10-16 | -0.64% | Pending | Pending |
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Sources
Related
- 2026-10-21Iran says it will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until Washington accepts its conditionsBZ=F DXY JKM
- 2026-10-20Iran prolongs talks with the United States as Tehran keeps its Strait of Hormuz reopening proposal conditional on sanctions reliefBZ=F DXY ZIM
- 2026-10-20Iran's Revolutionary Guards claim an advanced air-defense system shot down a US MQ-9 drone over HormuzBZ=F DXY ITA
- 2026-10-20Energy Secretary Chris Wright says Gulf crude flows have recovered to about 80% of prewar levels as the administration authorizes sales of sanctioned oil tankersBDTI BZ=F USO
- 2026-10-20Iran's Revolutionary Guards say mines set two tankers ablaze and halted them in the southern Strait of HormuzBZ=F FRO XAUUSD
- 2026-10-20Iranian Revolutionary Guards say two tankers hit mines and caught fire south of HormuzBDTI BZ=F GLD LNG1!
- 2026-10-20Donald Trump waives sanctions and tariffs tied to Russian energy exportsBZ=F WTI
- 2026-10-20Oman raises its official crude price for December delivery as Hormuz risk supports Gulf oil valuesBNO BZ=F OQ8?
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