IMF forecasts a 1.3% contraction for the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan in 2026 as war disrupts energy and shipping
Question
IMF forecasts a 1.3% contraction for the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan in 2026 as war disrupts energy and shipping
Direct answer
The downgrade increases downside risk for regional growth and sovereign credit while supporting oil and freight-risk premia.
- Original publisher
- Market Ontology
- Evidence through
- 2026-10-29
- Published
- 2026-10-29
- Revision
- 1 · 2026-10-29
Cite as: Market Ontology, “IMF forecasts a 1.3% contraction for the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan in 2026 as war disrupts energy and shipping”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-10-29. https://marketontology.com/market-events/2026-10-29/imf-forecasts-a-1-3-contraction-for-the-middle-east-north-africa-and-pakistan-in-0c1981
How this development reaches the affected companies
| Asset | Exposure and channel | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRENT CRUDE | Energy-production and shipping disruptions raise supply-risk premia | Up1-5d | IMF attributed the contraction partly to disruptions affecting energy production and shipping |
| BDRY | Shipping disruption increases dry-bulk freight-rate risk premia | Up1-5d | IMF cited disruption to regional shipping as a driver of weaker output |
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Sources
Related
- 2026-10-29An oil spill from a damaged tanker forces the closure of UAE beaches in Ras Al KhaimahBDRY UAE DIRHAM XLE
- 2026-10-29IMF forecasts a 1.3% contraction for the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan in 2026 as war disrupts energy and shippingBDRY BRENT CRUDE
- 2026-10-28Qatari mediators present Iran with a draft deal aimed at ending the US-Israel war and reopening the Strait of HormuzBDRY CL1! GLD
- 2026-10-28The International Maritime Organization records a record 29 vessel incidents around Hormuz in OctoberBDRY DHT FRO
- 2026-10-28Vessel attacks around the Strait of Hormuz drive Middle East tanker costs sharply higherBDRY CL1! ZIM
- 2026-10-28Reported vessel incidents around Hormuz reach a monthly record as tanker costs surgeBDRY BZ=F FRO
- 2026-10-28Houthi forces ordered the evacuation of Aden International Airport after explosions were heard nearbyBDRY BRENT CRUDE
- 2026-10-28U.S. Naval Forces Central Command advises ships to avoid unnecessary transits through the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of OmanBDRY CL=F UAL
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