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    Intelligence Feed event · Macro · 2026-11-09

    Markets price an 81.2% chance of a December Fed hike

    Question

    Markets price an 81.2% chance of a December Fed hike

    Direct answer

    A higher implied December policy rate lifts front-end yields and duration discounts, which feeds directly into TLT, SPY, and rate-sensitive growth multiples.

    Original publisher
    Market Ontology
    Evidence through
    2026-11-09
    Published
    2026-11-09
    Revision
    1 · 2026-11-10

    Cite as: Market Ontology, “Markets price an 81.2% chance of a December Fed hike”, revision 1, evidence through 2026-11-09. https://marketontology.com/market-events/2026-11-09/markets-price-an-81-2-chance-of-a-december-fed-hike-6e1b60

    MACRO
    Markets price an 81.2% chance of a December Fed hike
    A higher implied December policy rate lifts front-end yields and duration discounts, which feeds directly into TLT, SPY, and rate-sensitive growth multiples.
    TLTSPYXLE
    Impact
    85
    NOV 9
    SIG
    80%
    TLTSPYXLE
    Markets price an 81.2% chance of a December Fed hike
    A higher implied December policy rate lifts front-end yields and duration discounts, which feeds directly into TLT, SPY, and rate-sensitive growth multiples.
    → A higher implied December policy rate lifts front-end yields and duration discounts, which feeds directly into TLT, SPY, and rate-sensitive growth multiples.
    Impact
    A higher implied December policy rate lifts front-end yields and duration discounts, which feeds directly into TLT, SPY, and rate-sensitive growth multiples.
    Affected
    TLTSPYXLE
    Transmission
    A higher implied December policy rate lifts front-end yields and duration discounts, which feeds directly into TLT, SPY, and rate-sensitive growth multiples.

    How this development reaches the affected companies

    AssetExposure and channelDirectionEvidence
    TLThigher front-end yields via rate-hike repricingDown1-5dMarkets are pricing in an 81.2% probability of a Fed rate hike in December 2026.
    SPYhigher discount rates via December hike pricingMixed1-5dHistorical data shows the S&P 500 typically rises about 9% in the year following a new rate-hike cycle.
    XLErelative outperformance via short-duration defensive rotationUp1-5dThe article says investors should favor energy stocks.

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    What happened next

    AssetCallBase close+1 day+5 days+20 days
    SPYMixed735.29 2026-11-06PendingPendingPending
    TLTDown81.92 2026-11-06PendingPendingPending
    XLEUp61.62 2026-11-06PendingPendingPending

    Closing prices from stored daily bars; returns measured from the last close on or before the event date. Not a recommendation.

    No verifiable public source recorded for this card.

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