US2Y catalysts
Catalysts and events linked to US2Y, newest first.
US2Y stock catalysts and risks
Latest published review: 2026-10-20
| Development | Transmission channel | Evidence | Condition to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Traders bet on a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike before next week's decision 2026-09-08 · Up | higher odds of a Fed hike lift expectations for the policy rate and support front-end yields | traders were betting on a 60% chance of a rate hike at the Sept. 16 FOMC meeting | Not recorded |
| Fed Governor Barr says he would back a rate hike if inflation fails to moderate 2026-09-02 · Up | a more hawkish Fed outlook pulls front-end yields higher | coverage said the 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.40% as markets repriced for a possible hike | Not recorded |
| Commerce Department releases July personal income and spending data with core PCE still elevated 2026-08-28 · Up | sticky core inflation raises the odds the Fed keeps policy restrictive for longer | core PCE increased 0.2% monthly and 3.7% annually in July | Not recorded |
| U.S. inflation slowed in July as annual CPI rose 3.4% and markets cut Fed hike bets 2026-08-14 · Down | slower consumer inflation reduces expectations for near-term Fed hikes and lowers 2-year Treasury yields | annual CPI slowed to 3.4% and markets cut Fed hike bets | Not recorded |
| U.S. producer prices were unchanged in July, reinforcing bets the Fed will hold rates in September 2026-08-14 · Down | flat producer prices reduce expectations for near-term Fed tightening and pressure 2-year Treasury yields | U.S. producer prices were unchanged in July and the annual PPI rate eased to 4.7% from 5.5% | Not recorded |
| Federal Reserve officials Beth Hammack and Thomas Barkin are scheduled to speak after softer inflation data 2026-08-13 · Watch | without the officials' actual guidance, the transmission to front-end Treasury yields is indeterminate | the officials were scheduled to speak after traders reassessed the policy path, but no comments were provided | Not recorded |
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DateCardAvg 5d
- 2026-09-08Traders bet on a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike before next week's decisionDXY US2Y
- 2026-09-08Traders bet on a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike before next week's decisionDXY US2Y
- 2026-09-02Fed Governor Barr says he would back a rate hike if inflation fails to moderateQQQ TLT US2Y-0.76%
- 2026-09-02Fed Governor Barr says he would back a rate hike if inflation fails to moderateQQQ TLT US2Y-0.76%
- 2026-08-28Commerce Department releases July personal income and spending data with core PCE still elevatedDXY SPY US2Y+0.11%
- 2026-08-28Commerce Department releases July personal income and spending data with core PCE still elevatedDXY SPY US2Y+0.11%
- 2026-08-14U.S. inflation slowed in July as annual CPI rose 3.4% and markets cut Fed hike betsDXY NDX SPX US2Y
- 2026-08-14U.S. producer prices were unchanged in July, reinforcing bets the Fed will hold rates in SeptemberES1! US2Y USDJPY
- 2026-08-14U.S. producer prices were unchanged in July, reinforcing bets the Fed will hold rates in SeptemberES1! US2Y USDJPY
- 2026-08-14U.S. inflation slowed in July as annual CPI rose 3.4% and markets cut Fed hike betsDXY NDX SPX US2Y
- 2026-08-13Federal Reserve officials Beth Hammack and Thomas Barkin are scheduled to speak after softer inflation dataDXY SOFR US2Y
- 2026-08-12The Labor Department reports the US economy lost 23,000 jobs in July as prior months were revised down by 103,000.DXY EUR/USD QQQ US2Y-1.05%
- 2026-08-04US Labor Department reports weekly jobless claims decline, underscoring slow-hire, slow-fire labor marketDXY ESZ6 US2Y
- 2026-08-02US House of Representatives passes bipartisan bill to extend government funding and avert partial shutdownDXY ES_F US2Y
- 2026-07-30Federal Reserve holds policy rate steady with three FOMC dissents for a hikeDXY S&P500 US2Y
- 2026-07-29US weekly jobless claims fall, reinforcing slow-hire, slow-fire labor market narrativeDXY ES1! EURUSD US10Y
- 2026-07-28Fed officials signal flexible stance on reserve management and central clearing in latest commentsEFFR SOFR_FUT US2Y
- 2026-07-28US June nonfarm payrolls report shows hiring slowdown with 57,000 jobs addedDXY ES US2Y ZQ-3.57%
- 2026-07-21Philadelphia Fed July non-manufacturing business survey in focus for U.S. services momentumSPX US2Y XLF+2.66%
- 2026-07-19US renews strikes on Iran after attack killing two US personnel, lifting oil prices and Fed hike oddsBZ CL1 DXY US2Y+3.36%
- 2026-07-19Cleveland Fed’s Hammack signals possible July rate hike, joining hawkish shift on inflationDXY SPSY US2Y USDJPY
- 2026-07-14Large U.S. bank earnings and June CPI release set to drive near-term repricing of financials and ratesBAC DXY GS JPM-2.05%
- 2026-07-14Surging U.S. Producer Price Index ahead of June CPI intensifies inflation concernsDXY GC SPX US2Y
- 2026-07-14Fed Governor Waller signals potential near-term rate hike if upcoming core inflation prints remain hotDXY GLD SPX US2Y+0.71%
- 2026-07-13Federal Reserve Beige Book due July 15 to map regional conditions after recent energy price shockDXY US2Y ZQ
- 2026-07-13US June CPI release set for July 14 as key event for Fed policy expectationsDXY SPX US10Y US2Y
- 2026-07-09FOMC Minutes release scheduled with markets focused on policy trajectory and rate pathDXY S&P 500 INDEX US10Y US2Y
- 2026-07-08FOMC minutes due, market pricing leans toward extended pause after weak June employment reportDXY ES_F US10Y US2Y
- 2026-07-05Latest U.S. nonfarm payrolls report shows solid job gains with slightly softer wage growthEURUSD GBPUSD NQU26 US10Y
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